Method and system for determining motor reliability
First Claim
1. A method for determining reliability and a remaining time before failure with statistical confidence for an electric motor system, comprising steps performed by a computer system of:
- acquiring and organizing historical motor repair data corresponding to the motor system into a computer system database;
continually monitoring and uploading operational parameter data from sensors at the motor system to the computer system;
performing failure analysis based on a composite of reliability probability distributions corresponding to predetermined sub-populations of historical motor system failure causes;
developing a causal network for modeling reliability of one or more motor system components and assessing motor system component condition based on the causal network;
performing an integrated causal network and reliability analysis of the motor system, wherein results from performing failure analysis based on historical data are integrated with analysis results based on the causal network to compute a quantitative value for a time remaining before failure with an ascertained statistical confidence; and
outputting the computed value on a display device associated with the computer system.
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Accused Products
Abstract
The reliability and remaining time before failure for electric motor systems and the like is determined with an ascertained statistical confidence based on continually monitored system parameters and a database comprised of historical failure mode/cause and repair data concerning the same motor and/or similar motor systems. A computational process is followed that relies upon hierarchical failure-tree structures, Weibull probability distributions and directed causal networks and which updates the probabilities and models used to forecast the remaining time before system failure based on the monitored parameters. Motor system operational parameter data is continually monitored at the site of the motor system and up-loaded via wireless or other communications network to a remote computer system where a database is maintained and reliability analysis is performed.
105 Citations
29 Claims
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1. A method for determining reliability and a remaining time before failure with statistical confidence for an electric motor system, comprising steps performed by a computer system of:
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acquiring and organizing historical motor repair data corresponding to the motor system into a computer system database;
continually monitoring and uploading operational parameter data from sensors at the motor system to the computer system;
performing failure analysis based on a composite of reliability probability distributions corresponding to predetermined sub-populations of historical motor system failure causes;
developing a causal network for modeling reliability of one or more motor system components and assessing motor system component condition based on the causal network;
performing an integrated causal network and reliability analysis of the motor system, wherein results from performing failure analysis based on historical data are integrated with analysis results based on the causal network to compute a quantitative value for a time remaining before failure with an ascertained statistical confidence; and
outputting the computed value on a display device associated with the computer system. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A method for assessing reliability and determining, with a statistical degree of confidence, a quantitative value for time remaining before failure for an electric motor system and/or electric motor driven equipment, comprising the steps of:
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storing motor system component failure data in a computer data base, said failure rate data based on historical test data and/or failure analysis of similar or identical motor systems and motor components;
performing a motor system fault-tree analysis based on data assembled in the component failure data base;
developing one or more motor system component fault models based on said motor system fault tree analysis;
modeling the historical failure data of one or more motor system components using one or more conventional probability distribution functions;
developing a directed casual inference model and selecting system variables used for collecting data based on said casual inference model;
developing a conditional probability matrix comprising failure probabilities corresponding to possible failure events for said motor system;
developing an overall motor system reliability model based on said casual inference model and said conditional probability matrix; and
computing a statistical assessment of reliability of the motor system and a quantitative value for time remaining before failure using said overall motor system reliability model. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A computer-implemented method for determining electrical motor system reliability with an ascertained statistical confidence, comprising:
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modeling historical failure data of one or more system components using one or more conventional probability distribution functions;
developing a motor system reliability model based on historical failure data, causal inference models of motor system failure and conditional probabilities describing possible failure events;
collecting motor operational parameter data acquired via motor system sensors located at the motor system site;
evaluating a present state of motor system reliability using the motor system reliability model and collected operational parameter data; and
computing a statistical assessment of motor system reliability and a quantitative value for time remaining before failure using the motor system reliability model. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29)
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Specification