Method and apparatus for calculating a return on investment for weather-related risk management

• US 6,963,853 B1
• Filed: 08/09/2000
• Issued: 11/08/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 08/09/2000
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: User-Centric IP, L.P. (Locator IP LP)
• Original Assignee: User-Centric Enterprises, Inc.
• Inventors: Smith, Michael
• Primary Examiner(s): Trammell, James P.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Winter, John M
• Application Number:
  US09/635,255
• Time in Patent Office: 1,917 Days
• Field of Search: 705/35, 705/36, 705/4, 700/90, 702/3
• US Class Current: 705/36.00R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A computer-implemented method and system evaluates and displays a return on investment for using weather-related risk-management services. The system includes user interfaces, databases containing information about the accuracy of different forms of weather-related risk-management services and the types and frequency of weather events in different geographical areas, and return on investment functions. The system accepts information about a user'"'"'s costs of responding to weather warnings and events, retrieves information from its databases and applies the appropriate function to determine a return on investment. The result is then displayed to the user. The method determines the costs of weather-related risks faced by a user under two different risk-management services and compares them, determining a return on investment for the use of one service over the other.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method of calculating a return on investment for a form of weather-related risk management comprising the steps of:

(1) receiving in a computer information about a company'"'"'s cost of responding to weather warnings;

(2) determining a cost of weather-related risk us ing a first form of weather-related risk management;

(3) determining a cost of weather-related risk using a second form of weather-related risk management; and

(4) generating a displayable output reflecting the difference between the cost of weather-related risk using the second form of risk management and the cost of weather-related risk using the first form of weather-related risk management.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein step (1) further comprises the steps of:

(a) receiving information about the company'"'"'s industry;

(b) receiving information about the company'"'"'s geographic location;

(c) receiving information about the company'"'"'s cost of responding to a weather warning; and

(d) receiving information about the number of times the company responds to weather warnings per year.

3. The method of claim 2 further comprising the step of providing a list of industries from which to choose.

4. The method of claim 2 further comprising the step of providing a list of states from which to choose.

5. The method of claim 2 further comprising the step of displaying the average number of National Weather Service weather warnings issued per county per year in the company'"'"'s region.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein step (2) further comprises determining a cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the first form of weather-related risk management.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein step (2) further comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a ratio of time spent under weather warning using the first form of weather-related risk management;

(b) determining a cost per unit time of taking weather precautions;

(c) calculating an inaccuracy index of weather warnings issued under the first form of weather-related risk management; and

(d) multiplying the ratio of time spent under weather warning, the cost per unit time of taking weather precautions, and the inaccuracy index, resulting in the cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the first form of weather-related risk management.

8. The method of claim 7 wherein step (c) comprises the steps of:

(i) determining a number of weather warnings issued per unit time;

(ii) determining a number of weather events per unit time;

(iii) determining a number of false warnings issued per unit time; and

(iv) applying a formula;

1−

[warnings issued per unit time/(weather events per unit time+false warnings issued per unit time)].

9. The method of claim 7 wherein step (b) comprises determining a cost per unit time of shutting down a manufacturing facility.

10. The method of claim 7 wherein step (b) comprises the steps of:

(i) determining a number of railroad trains affected by weather warnings;

(ii) determining a cost per unit time of stopping a railroad train; and

(iii) multiplying the number of railroad trains affected by weather warnings by the cost per unit time of stopping a railroad train.

11. The method of claim 6 wherein step (2) further comprises the steps of

(a) determining a number of weather warnings issued per unit of time under the first form of weather-related risk management;

(b) determining a cost of mobilizing an electric utility facility to respond to a weather warning;

(c) calculating an inaccuracy index of weather warnings issued under the first form of weather-related risk management; and

(d) multiplying the number of warnings per unit of time, the cost of mobilizing an electric facility, and the inaccuracy index, resulting in the total cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the first form of weather-related risk management.

12. The method of claim 11 wherein step (c) comprises the steps of:

(i) determining a number of warnings issued per unit time;

(ii) determining a number of weather events per unit time;

(iii) determining a number of false warnings issued per unit time; and

(iv) applying a formula;

1−

[warnings issued per unit time/(weather events per unit time+false warnings issued per unit time)].

13. The method of claim 1 wherein step (3) further comprises determining a cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the second form of weather-related risk management.

14. The method of claim 13 wherein step (3) further comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a ratio of time spent under weather warning using the second form of weather-related risk management;

(b) determining a cost per unit time of taking weather precautions;

(c) determining an inaccuracy index of weather warnings issued under the second form of weather-related risk management; and

(d) multiplying the ratio of time spent under weather warning, the cost per unit time of taking weather precautions, and the inaccuracy index, resulting in the cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the second form of weather-related risk management.

15. The method of claim 14 wherein step (c) comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a number of warnings issued per unit time;

(b) determining a number of weather events per unit time;

(c) determining a number of false warnings issued per unit time; and

(d) applying a formula;

1−

[warnings issued per unit time/(weather events per unit time+false warnings issued per unit time)].

16. The method of claim 15 wherein the number of warnings issued per unit time is the number of warnings issued for a geographical area by the National Weather Service per unit time.

17. The method of claim 14 wherein step (b) comprises determining a cost per unit time of shutting down a manufacturing facility.

18. The method of claim 14 wherein step (b) comprises the steps of:

(i) determining a number of railroad trains affected by weather warnings;

(ii) determining a cost per unit time of stopping a railroad train; and

(iii) multiplying the number of railroad trains affected by weather warnings by the cost per unit time of stopping a railroad train.

19. The method of claim 13 wherein step (3) further comprises the steps of

(a) determining a number of weather warnings issued per unit of time under the second form of weather-related risk management;

(b) determining a cost of mobilizing an electric utility facility to respond to a weather warning;

(c) calculating an inaccuracy index of weather warnings issued under the second form of weather-related risk management; and

(d) multiplying the number of weather warnings per unit time, the cost of mobilizing an electric facility, and the inaccuracy index, resulting in the cost of unnecessary weather precautions taken using the second form of weather-related risk management.

20. The method of claim 19 wherein step (c) comprises the steps of:

(i) determining a number of warnings issued per unit time;

(ii) determining a number of weather events per unit time;

(iii) determining a number of false warnings issued per unit time; and

(iv) applying a formula;

1−

[warnings issued per unit time/(weather events per unit time+false warnings issued per unit time)].

21. The method of claim 20 wherein the number of warnings issued per unit time is the number of warnings issued for a geographical area by the National Weather Service per unit time.

22. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of (5) receiving information about a company'"'"'s cost of weather damage.

23. The method of claim 22 wherein step (2) comprises determining a cost of unwarned weather events using the first form of weather-related risk management.

24. The method of claim 22 wherein step (2) comprises determining a cost of suboptimal weather precaution taken using the first form of weather-related risk.

25. The method of claim 22 wherein step (3) comprises determining a cost of unwarned weather events using the second form of weather-related risk management.

26. The method of claim 22 wherein step (3) comprises determining a cost of suboptimal weather precaution taken using the second form of weather-related risk.

27. A computer-implemented method of calculating a return on investment for forms of weather-related risk management comprising the steps of:

(1) receiving in a computer information about a company'"'"'s cost of responding to hurricane warnings;

(2) determining a cost of unnecessary hurricane precautions; and

(3) displaying the cost of unnecessary hurricane precautions.

28. The method of claim 27 wherein step (l) further comprises the steps of:

(a) receiving information about a number of hurricane warnings to which the company responded in a given time period;

(b) receiving information about a cost of responding to hurricane warnings incurred during the given time period; and

(c) receiving information about a number of times the company experienced hurricane-force winds during the given time period.

29. The method of claim 27 wherein step (2) further comprises the steps of:

(a) determining a cost of precautions taken in response to hurricane warnings in a given time period using a first form of weather-related risk management;

(b) if the company did not actually experience hurricane-force winds during the given time period, then discounting the cost of precautions taken in response to hurricane warnings by the probability that the company would have experienced hurricane warnings using a second form of weather-related risk management, resulting in a cost of unnecessary hurricane precautions taken using the first form of weather-related risk management; and

(c) if the company did actually experience hurricane-force winds during the given time period, then discounting the cost of precautions taken in response to hurricane warnings using the first form of weather-related risk management to zero, resulting in the cost of unnecessary hurricane precautions using the first form of weather-related risk management.

30. A computer-implemented system for the calculation of a return on investment for forms of weather-related risk management, comprising a computer having:

a database containing information about a plurality of forms of weather-related risk management;

a computer-implemented interface function that receives information about a cost of weather-related risk; and

a computer-implemented return on investment function that operates on information retrieved from the database and information received by the interface function and generates a displayable return-on-investment result,

where the database contains information about a plurality of critical success indices of a plurality of forms of weather-related risk management.

31. A computer-implemented system for the calculation of a return on investment for forms of weather-related risk management, comprising a computer having:

a database containing information about a plurality of forms of weather-related risk management;

a computer-implemented interface function that receives information about a cost of weather-related risk; and

a computer-implemented return on investment function that operates on information retrieved from the database and information received by the interface function and generates a displayable return-on-investment result,

where the interface function receives information about a user'"'"'s industry, location, and number of weather warnings responded to per unit time.

32. The system of claim 31 where the database contains information about a number of weather warnings issued by a plurality of forms of weather-related risk management.

33. The system of claim 31 where the database contains information about a duration of weather warnings issued by a plurality of forms of weather-related risk management.

34. The system of claim 31 where the National Weather Service is one of the forms of the plurality of forms of weather-related risk management about which the database contains information.

35. The system of claim 31 where the interface function receives information about a cost per unit time of shutting down a manufacturing facility.

36. The system of claim 31, where the interface function receives information about a number of railroad trains shut down per weather warning and cost of shutting down a railroad train per unit time.

37. The system of claim 31, where the interface function receives information about an electric utility'"'"'s cost of mobilizing a weather warning response unit.

38. The system of claim 31 where the interface function receives information about a user'"'"'s cost of hurricane precaution.

39. A method of generating a displayable return-on-investment value for use in evaluating a weather-related risk-management service for an electric utility, comprising the steps of:

(1) receiving in a computer a range of predicted temperatures over which no change in electrical production will occur;

(2) comparing an actual high temperature occurring on a given day with the temperature range, if the actual high temperature falls outside the range received in step (1), determining a loss based on a deficiency in electrical production;

(3) determining a return on investment for using the weather-related risk-management service based on the loss determined in step (2); and

(4) displaying the result determined in step (3).

40. The method of claim 39, wherein step (2) comprises the steps of:

(a) if the actual high temperature falls within the range received in step (1), determining whether excess power production capacity is available;

(b) determining a gain based on the excess power production capacity; and

(c) using the gain in step (b) to determine the return on investment in step (3).

41. The method of claim 40, wherein step (2) comprises the step of using a publicly available cost value for megawatt-hours to determine the loss and gain.