Conflict assessment system tool

• US 7,092,927 B2
• Filed: 06/27/2001
• Issued: 08/15/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 06/27/2001
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: The Fund For Peace Corporation
• Original Assignee: The Fund For Peace Corporation
• Inventors: Clark, Mark A., Russell, Anne V., Baker, Pauline H.
• Primary Examiner(s): Knight, Anthony
• Assistant Examiner(s): Datskovskiy, Sergey
• Application Number:
  US09/891,311
• Publication Number:
  US 20030004954A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,875 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7, 705/8, 705/9, 705/10, 705/11, 706/45, 706/46, 706/50, 706/925, 706/932, 706/933
• US Class Current: 706/50
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/933 Law, law enforcement, or government

Abstract

Methods and apparatus for performing conflict assessments conducted by a software tool, which are particularly suited for monitoring internal conflicts of various countries are disclosed. An application of this method and apparatus to the international community is also disclosed.

Claims

1. A method of conflict assessment using a relational database stored on a source medium loaded onto a computer system, comprising the steps of:

selecting a country and time period to analyze;

determining if the database contains enough-information to perform a base assessment of the selected country;

gathering up-to-the-moment information by Internet searches;

analyzing the information to determine a plurality of internal conflict indicators;

factoring the present state of each indicator and the indicator'"'"'s cumulative value against past conflict assessments by determining the rate of change in the state of conflict and the differences in the contributing factors; and

outputting the assessment data results for a user to view;

wherein the step of determining the rate of change in the state of conflict and the differences in the contributing factors further comprise the steps of;

placing a composite value of the indicators onto a historical graph of previous conflict assessments;

determining the delta of the composite value and the delta of each indicator value from the last assessment;

determining if automatic alerts or warnings should be issued based on predetermined criteria; and

placing the composite values and the delta information of the selected country onto a conflict assessment framework, wherein said framework comprises five stages of conflict that track where the selected country falls with respect to the probability of conflict arising.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining if the database contains enough information further comprises the steps of:

searching all pre-determined online sources;

searching database files; and

determining the information reliability.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein said database files include categories of government, people, economy, geography, communication/transportation, military, health, domestic security, and international areas.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of determining the information reliability further comprises the steps of:

corroborating information;

determining computational relationships;

identifying informational holes; and

determining source reliability ratings.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said source medium is a high density 3 ½

inch diskette.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said source medium is a CD-ROM disk.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of analyzing the information to determine the level of indicators further comprises the steps of:

determining indicator rankings for the selected country;

determining each indicator'"'"'s weighted values for the selected country; and

determining the presence of anomalies that effect the ranked indicators.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the five stages include root causes, intermediate causes, transition, transformation of the State and outcome.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein the conflict assessment is an internal conflict assessment within the selected country.

9. A method of conflict assessment using a relational database stored on a source medium loaded onto a computer system, comprising the steps of:

selecting a country and time period to analyze;

determining if the database contains enough information to perform a base assessment of the selected country;

gathering up-to-the-moment information by determining indicator rankings for the selected country, determining each indicator'"'"'s weighted values for the selected country, and determining the presence of anomalies that effect the ranked indicators;

factoring the present state of each indicator and the indicators'"'"' cumulative value against past conflict assessments by determining a rate of change in the state of internal conflict and the differences in the contributing factors; and

outputting the assessment data results of a user to view;

wherein the step of determining the rate of change in the state of conflict and the differences in the contributing factors further comprises the steps of;

placing a composite value of the indicators onto a historical graph of previous conflict assessments;

determining the delta of the composite value and the delta of each indicator value from the last assessment;

determining if automatic alerts or warnings should be issued based on pre-determined criteria; and

placing the composite value and the delta information of the selected country onto a conflict assessment framework, wherein said framework comprises five stages of conflict that track where the elected country falls with respect to the probability of conflict arising.

10. The method of claim 9 wherein said five stages include root causes, intermediate causes, transition, transformation of the State, and outcome.

11. A conflict assessment method, comprising maintaining a relational database of information relating to countries, qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators;

updating the database with current information;

analyzing the information to determine a plurality of internal conflict indicators for a country; and

determining a rate of change of conflict in the country.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the qualitative indicators comprise legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance or group paranoia.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein the qualitative indicators comprise criminalization and/or delegitimization of the country.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein the qualitative indicators comprise the operation of a security apparatus as a state within a state.

15. The method of claim 11, wherein the qualitative indicators comprise rise of factionalized elites.

16. The method of claim 11, wherein the qualitative indicators comprise intervention of other states.