System and method for managing a chaotic event by providing optimal and adaptive sequencing of decision sets with supporting data

• US 7,647,286 B2
• Filed: 09/28/2007
• Issued: 01/12/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 09/07/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kyndryl Incorporated
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Kraemer, James R., Friedlander, Robert R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Vincent; David R
• Assistant Examiner(s): OLUDE AFOLABI, OLATOYOSI
• Application Number:
  US11/864,039
• Publication Number:
  US 20080177688A1
• Time in Patent Office: 837 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 706/46
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/08 using chaos models or non-linear system models

Abstract

A method for determining a sequence of decisions related to a chaotic event. A plurality of decisions related to the chaotic event is received. A mathematical optimization algorithm is used to select a sequence in which the plurality of decisions are to be considered. The mathematical optimization algorithm takes as input at least one constraint and chaotic event information. The sequence is stored.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method for determining a sequence of decisions related to a chaotic event for a plurality of decision makers managing a plurality of effects of the chaotic event, the computer implemented method comprising:

receiving a plurality of decisions related to the chaotic event, wherein the chaotic event is an interruption in a plurality of routines normally performed by people in everyday activities because of damage inflicted to individuals and infrastructures;

using a mathematical optimization algorithm causing the processor to select a sequence corresponding to a decision maker in which the plurality of decisions are to be considered, wherein the mathematical optimization algorithm takes as input at least one constraint and a plurality of chaotic event information, and wherein the sequence is mathematically optimized to manage the plurality of effects of the chaotic event in a shortest possible time;

storing the sequence; and

displaying the sequence on a display of the corresponding decision maker.

2. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the at least one constraint is selected from the group consisting of a decision maker profile, a priority, a list of priorities, a stored decision template, a previously determined subset of decisions, a mathematical characterization of a political consideration, a set of available resources, a communication method, a time allowed to perform a task, a risk tolerance, a data quality, a data reliability, a physical measurement related to the chaotic event, a monetary limitation, a classified information policy, a security requirement, and a hazardous material restriction.

3. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the at least one constraint comprises a decision maker profile, and wherein the decision maker profile comprises at least one of a rank of a decision maker, a hierarchy of a plurality of decision makers, a name of the decision maker, a skill of the decision maker, a subject area of interest of the decision maker, a priority of the decision maker, a decision maker input, an education of the decision maker, a limitation of the decision maker, a cultural fact regarding the decision maker, and a political influence of the decision maker.

4. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein displaying the sequence is performed on a display window and wherein the method further comprises:

altering the display window based on a decision maker profile.

5. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the sequence of decisions is mathematically optimized to bound a solution space in a shortest possible time.

6. The computer implemented method of claim 1 further comprising:

receiving a fact in the form of at least one datum;

including the fact in the at least one constraint to form a modified set of constraints; and

reiterating the mathematical optimization algorithm to select a second sequence of decisions, wherein the second sequence of decisions is different than the first sequence of decisions, and wherein the mathematical optimization algorithm takes as further input the modified subset of constraints; and

storing the second sequence of decisions.

7. The computer implemented method of claim 6 further comprising:

displaying the second sequence of decisions.

8. The computer implemented method of claim 6 wherein the fact is selected from the group consisting of:

a change in the plurality of chaotic event information, a removal of a constraint, an addition of a constraint, an addition of a new decision maker, a removal of the decision maker, a change in rank of the decision maker, a decision rendered by the decision maker, a decision maker input, and combinations thereof.

9. A computer program product comprising:

a computer usable medium having computer usable program code for determining a sequence of decisions related to a chaotic event for a plurality of decision makers managing a plurality of effects of the chaotic event, the computer program product including;

computer usable program code for receiving a plurality of decisions related to the chaotic event, wherein the chaotic event is an interruption in a plurality of routines normally performed by people in everyday activities because of damage inflicted to individuals and infrastructures;

computer usable program code for using a mathematical optimization algorithm to select a sequence corresponding to a decision maker in which the plurality of decisions are to be considered, wherein the mathematical optimization algorithm takes as input at least one constraint and a plurality of chaotic event information, and wherein the sequence is mathematically optimized to manage the plurality of effects of the chaotic event in a shortest possible time;

computer usable program code for storing the sequence; and

computer usable program code for displaying the sequence on a display of the corresponding decision maker.

10. The computer program product of claim 9 wherein:

the at least one constraint is selected from the group consisting of a decision maker profile, a priority, a list of priorities, a stored decision template, a previously determined subset of decisions, a mathematical characterization of a political consideration, a set of available resources, a communication method, a time allowed to perform a task, a risk tolerance, a data quality, a data reliability, a physical measurement related to the chaotic event, a monetary limitation, a classified information policy, a security requirement, and a hazardous material restriction; and

the at least one constraint comprises a decision maker profile, and wherein the decision maker profile comprises at least one of a rank of a decision maker, a hierarchy of the plurality of decision makers, a name of the decision maker, a skill of the decision maker, a subject area of interest of the decision maker, a priority of the decision maker, a decision maker input, an education of the decision maker, a limitation of the decision maker, a cultural fact regarding the decision maker, and a political influence of the decision maker.

11. The computer program product of claim 9 wherein displaying the sequence is performed on a display window and wherein the method further comprises:

computer usable program code for altering the display window based on a decision maker profile.

12. The computer program product of claim 9 wherein the sequence of decisions is mathematically optimized to achieve a goal in a shortest possible time.

13. The computer program product of claim 9 wherein the sequence of decisions is mathematically optimized to bound a solution space in a shortest possible time.

14. The computer program product of claim 9 further comprising:

computer usable program code for receiving a fact in the form of at least one datum;

computer usable program code for including the fact in the at least one constraint to form a modified set of constraints; and

computer usable program code for reiterating the mathematical optimization algorithm to select a second sequence of decisions, wherein the second sequence of decisions is different than the first sequence of decisions, and wherein the mathematical optimization algorithm takes as further input the modified subset of constraints; and

computer usable program code for storing the second sequence of decisions.

15. The computer program product of claim 14 further comprising:

computer usable program code for displaying the second sequence of decisions.

16. The computer program product of claim 14 wherein the fact is selected from the group consisting of:

a change in the plurality of chaotic event information, a removal of a constraint, an addition of a constraint, an addition of a new decision maker, a removal of a decision maker, a change in rank of a decision maker, a decision rendered by a decision maker, decision maker input, and combinations thereof.

17. A data processing system comprising:

a bus;

at least one processor coupled to the bus;

a computer usable medium coupled to the bus, wherein the computer usable medium contains a set of instructions for determining a sequence of decisions related to a chaotic event for a plurality of decision makers managing a plurality of effects of the chaotic event, wherein the at least one processor is adapted to carry out the set of instructions to;

receive a plurality of decisions related to the chaotic event, wherein the chaotic event is an interruption in a plurality of routines normally performed by people in everyday activities because of damage inflicted to individuals and infrastructures;

use a mathematical optimization algorithm to select a sequence corresponding to a decision maker in which the plurality of decisions are to be considered, wherein the mathematical optimization algorithm takes as input at least one constraint and a plurality of chaotic event information, and wherein the sequence is mathematically optimized to manage the plurality of effects of the chaotic event in a shortest possible time;

store the sequence; and

display the sequence on a display of the corresponding decision maker.