Dynamic time series prediction of traffic conditions

• US 8,275,540 B2
• Filed: 11/21/2011
• Issued: 09/25/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 03/03/2006
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Inventors: Downs, Oliver B., Chapman, Craig H., Barker, Alec
• Primary Examiner(s): Tran, Khoi
• Assistant Examiner(s): FIGUEROA, JAIME
• Application Number:
  US13/301,622
• Publication Number:
  US 20120136561A1
• Time in Patent Office: 309 Days
• Field of Search: 701/117, 701/118, 701/119, 340/995.13
• US Class Current: 701/118
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0104 Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0968 Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle

Abstract

Techniques are described for generating predictions of future traffic conditions at multiple future times, such as by using probabilistic techniques to assess various input data while repeatedly producing future time series predictions for each of numerous road segments (e.g., in a real-time manner based on changing current conditions for a network of roads in a given geographic area). In some situations, one or more predictive Bayesian models and corresponding decision trees are automatically created for use in generating the future traffic condition predictions for each geographic area of interest, such as based on observed historical traffic conditions for those geographic areas. Predicted future traffic condition information may then be used in a variety of ways to assist in travel and for other purposes, such as to plan optimal routes through a network of roads based on predictions about traffic conditions for the roads at multiple future times.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving, by a configured computing system, first information indicating current traffic conditions at a first time for one or more road segments that are at least some of multiple road segments for one or more roads, and second information indicating other conditions that affect traffic on the one or more road segments;

using, by the configured computing system, the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other conditions to automatically predict traffic conditions on at least one of the multiple road segments at one or more second times; and

providing, by the configured computing system, one or more indications of at least some of the predicted traffic conditions for use in facilitating travel on the one or more roads.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the automatic predicting of the traffic conditions is based on use of at least one predictive model that uses the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other conditions as input.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the at least one predictive model includes a Bayesian network.

4. The method of claim 2 wherein the at least one predictive model includes a probabilistic model.

5. The method of claim 2 further comprising automatically generating the predictive model based at least in part on observed past traffic conditions on the multiple road segments and on past other conditions that affected the past traffic conditions on the multiple road segments.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein the predicted traffic conditions are, for each of the at least one road segments, multiple distinct predicted levels of traffic congestion on that road segment for multiple distinct future times, and wherein the method further comprises, after the automatic predicting of the traffic conditions:

receiving updated current conditions information that is distinct from the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other conditions;

automatically predicting new levels of traffic congestion for the at least one road segments at each of at least some of the multiple distinct future times, and

using one or more of the predicted new traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the one or more roads.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes providing information about the at least some predicted traffic conditions to one or more recipients for use, and wherein the using of the predicted new traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the one or more roads includes providing updated information about the predicted new traffic congestion levels to at least one of the recipients.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein the indicated current traffic conditions include, for each of the one or more road segments, at least one of a measured average speed on the road segment and a measured traffic volume on the road segment.

9. The method of claim 8 wherein the indicated other conditions affect the traffic on the one or more road segments at the first time and include at least one of current weather conditions, current events that are scheduled to occur, and current schedules for school sessions.

10. The method of claim 9 wherein the indicated other conditions are current conditions at the first time and include the current weather conditions, the current events that are scheduled to occur, the current schedules for school sessions, current expectations for future weather, current traffic accidents on the road segments, current construction activities on the road segments, a current time of day, and a current day of week.

11. The method of claim 9 wherein the automatic predicting of the traffic conditions occurs at the first time and is further based on information about prior traffic conditions before the first time for the one or more road segments.

12. The method of claim 1 wherein the received first information indicating the current traffic conditions is obtained at least in part from a network of multiple traffic sensors such that the one or more road segments each corresponds to one or more of the multiple traffic sensors.

13. The method of claim 1 wherein the received first information indicating the current traffic conditions is obtained at least in part from multiple vehicles traveling on the one or more roads, each vehicle configured to repeatedly determine vehicle travel data that includes at least one of location of the vehicle, speed of the vehicle, and travel direction of the vehicle, and to provide the determined vehicle travel data.

14. The method of claim 1 wherein the received first information indicating the current traffic conditions is obtained at least in part from multiple users traveling on the one or more roads, each user having a mobile device operative to provide geo-location data including location of the mobile device.

15. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more second times include at least one future time that occurs after the automatic predicting of the traffic conditions.

16. The method of claim 1 wherein the at least one road segments include at least one of the one or more road segments.

17. The method of claim 1 wherein the automatically predicted traffic conditions for the at least one road segments are distinct from historical average traffic conditions for the at least one road segments.

18. The method of claim 1 wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes at least one of initiating presentation of the at least some predicted traffic conditions to a user and of providing the one or more indications to a third party that uses the provided one or more indications to facilitate travel on the one or more roads.

19. The method of claim 1 wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes generating comparative information regarding the at least some predicted traffic conditions and other traffic conditions for the at least one road segments, and providing one or more indications of the generated comparative information.

20. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more roads include multiple roads, wherein the at least one road segments include the multiple road segments, and wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes:

identifying multiple route options between a starting location and a destination location over the multiple roads, each of the route options including at least one of the multiple road segments;

selecting at least one of the multiple route options as being preferred based at least in part on the predicted traffic conditions; and

providing one or more indications of the selected route options.

23. The method of claim 20 wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes initiating display to a user of a map on which the multiple route options are indicated.

24. The method of claim 1 wherein the predicted traffic conditions each includes at least one associated vehicle speed, and wherein the one or more roads include multiple roads that are part of an interconnected network of roads in a single geographic area.

21. The method of 20 wherein the automatic predicting of the traffic conditions is performed for each of multiple distinct future times, and wherein each of the identified multiple route options includes a plurality of the multiple road segments.

22. The method of claim 21 wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions includes initiating providing of the at least some predicted traffic conditions to a user, and wherein the method further comprises, after the providing of the at least some predicted traffic conditions to the user, receiving information indicating updated current conditions, predicting updated expected traffic conditions for the at least one road segments at one or more of the multiple future times based at least in part on the updated current conditions, and providing updated information to the user that indicates an updated predicted travel time for at least one of the multiple route options based at least in part on the predicted updated expected traffic conditions.

25. A non-transitory computer-readable medium whose stored contents configure a computing system to perform a method, the method comprising:

receiving, by the configured computing system, first information indicating current traffic conditions at a first time for one or more road segments of multiple road segments of one or more roads, and second information indicating other conditions that affect traffic on the multiple road segments;

using, by the configured computing system, the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other conditions to automatically predict traffic conditions on at least one of the multiple road segments at one or more second times; and

providing, by the configured computing system, one or more indications of at least some of the predicted traffic conditions for use in facilitating travel on the one or more roads.

26. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the computer-readable medium is a memory of the configured computing system, and wherein the contents are software instructions that when executed program the configured computing system to perform the method.

27. A computing system, comprising:

one or more processors;

a first component configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, predict traffic conditions corresponding to one or more roads having multiple road segments by;

receiving first information indicating current traffic conditions at a first time for one or more road segments of the multiple road segments, and second information indicating other conditions that affect traffic on at least one of the multiple road segments; and

using the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other conditions to automatically predict traffic conditions on the at least one road segments at one or more second times; and

a second component configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, provide one or more indications of at least some of the predicted traffic conditions for use in facilitating travel on the one or more roads.

28. The computing system of claim 27 wherein the first component is a dynamic traffic predictor component, and wherein the first and second components each includes software instructions for execution by the one or more processors.

29. The computing system of claim 27 wherein the first component consists of a means for performing the predicting of the traffic conditions corresponding to the one or more roads, and wherein the second component consists of a means for performing the providing of the one or more indications of the at least some predicted traffic conditions.