Trigger system for monitoring and/or control devices and/or early warning systems for nascent and/or occurring cyclones

• US 8,354,933 B2
• Filed: 11/10/2006
• Issued: 01/15/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 11/15/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Swiss Reinsurance Company
• Original Assignee: Swiss Reinsurance Company
• Inventors: Wunderlich, Stefan, Bresch, David, Koellner-Heck, Pamela
• Primary Examiner(s): Lee, Benjamin C
• Assistant Examiner(s): PHAM, QUANG
• Application Number:
  US12/093,861
• Publication Number:
  US 20090303056A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,258 Days
• Field of Search: 340/601, 340/539.11, 340/690, 455/456.3, 455/466, 705/36.R, 702/15
• US Class Current: 340/601
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09

Abstract

An automated trigger device and a corresponding method for dynamic triggering of developing and/or imminent tropical storms for integrated monitoring devices and/or control devices and/or early warning systems. The trigger device includes a trigger module, and measurement devices arranged in cellular, geographically and/or topologically definable units or zones. Geophysical measurement parameters can be transmitted from the measurement devices to the trigger module. By a Monte Carlo module—and based on the measurement parameters—data records can be dynamically generated for definable future time intervals. By an extrapolation module track distribution parameters of a track distribution integrable over the plurality of data records are generated for each of the definable future time intervals. By an activating device—and based on the generated track distribution parameters and/or the trigger parameters—a corresponding control signal is transmitted to the monitoring device.

Claims

1. An early warning system for developing and imminent tropical storms, comprising:

an automated trigger device including means for generating and transmitting an activating pulse after a trigger parameter is exceeded, and

measurement devices distributed in a decentralized manner, the activating pulse sent to the measurement devices to request at least one of geophysical, atmospheric, and maritime measurement parameters by a standardized message,

wherein the measurement devices are arranged in at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones, and the at least one of geophysical, atmospheric, and maritime measurement parameters of the measurement devices are transferred via a network interface to and stored in a trigger module of the trigger device,

the measurement devices for measuring the measurement parameters include measurement sensors that are connected to the measurement devices via an air interface or a fixed wired interface or via an interface including contacts,

the trigger module includes a Monte Carlo module for dynamic generation of a plurality of data records including at least one of physical and geographical parameters of a tropical storm for definable future time intervals based on the transmitted measurement parameters, and wherein the trigger device includes means for dynamic variation of boundary condition parameters of the data records based on the transmitted measurement parameters,

the trigger module includes an extrapolation module for generating and storing track distribution parameters of a track distribution, which are integrated via the plurality of the data records, for each of the definable future time intervals, wherein the track distribution includes each of the at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones and are extrapolated according to parameterization of the at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones, and

the trigger device includes an activating device, the early warning system being activated by the activating device in response to at least one of the generated track distribution parameters meeting a predetermined criteria and the trigger parameter meeting a predetermined criteria, the trigger parameter including a catastrophe bond index corresponding to a predetermined range of values.

2. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones are dynamically matched during occurrence of the tropical storm.

3. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the transmission of the measurement parameters from the measurement devices to the trigger module takes place periodically and on request by the trigger module after predefinable threshold values are exceeded.

4. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the measurement sensors include sensors for measuring at least one of water and air temperature.

5. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the track distribution parameters include a definable probability parametrization over the cellular units.

6. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the monitoring device includes means for triggering multistage damage cover systems, which multistage damage cover systems include at least a second stage based on sums of money transferred from user units and stored in a memory unit, which can be activated after a predefined damage limit threshold value is activated.

7. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the early warning system includes a user profile based on stored user information, and user data is generated based on the trigger parameter and is selected based on the user profile, and the user data is transmitted from the early warning system via a network to a communications device of a user.

8. The early warning system according to claim 7, wherein the activating device includes a determinable threshold value, and after the threshold value is exceeded by a cumulative trigger parameter, the user data is transmitted from the early warning system to one or more communications devices of users.

9. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the data records include at least one of geographical and topological parameters.

10. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the trigger module is configured in a decentralized manner as an independent network unit, and the early warning system further includes:

means for accessing the trigger module via the network based on at least one of periodically, on request, and after predefined time intervals.

11. The early warning system according to claim 1, wherein the trigger module includes means for determining the data records based on at least one of air pressure parameters, cellular air pressure parameters, interpolated cellular air pressure parameters, trajectory parameters, and stochastic parameters.

12. An automated early warning method for dynamically triggering developing and imminent tropical storms, the method comprising:

generating, by a trigger module of a trigger device, an activating pulse after a trigger parameter is exceeded, the activating pulse configured to request at least one of geophysical, atmospheric, and maritime measurement parameters by a standardized message from measurement devices;

transmitting the activating pulse to the measurement devices, wherein the measurement devices are arranged in a decentralized manner in at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones;

transmitting from the measurement devices, by a network interface, at least one of geophysical, atmospheric, and maritime measurement parameters to the trigger module, and storing the at least one of geophysical, atmospheric, and maritime measurement parameters at the trigger module, wherein the measurement devices include measurement sensors that are connected to the measurement devices via an air interface or a fixed wired interface or via an interface provided with contacts;

dynamically generating, by a Monte Carlo module of the trigger module, a plurality of data records including at least one of physical and geographical parameters of a tropical storm for definable future time intervals based on the transmitted measurement parameters, wherein boundary condition parameters of the data records are dynamically varied based on the transmitted measurement parameters;

generating and storing in an allocated manner, by an extrapolation module of the trigger module, track distribution parameters of a track distribution that are integrated via the plurality of the data records for each of the definable future time intervals, wherein the track distribution includes each of the at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones and is extrapolated according to parameterization of the at least one of cellular, geographically, and topologically definable units or zones; and

activating an early warning system, by an activating device of the trigger device, in response to at least one of the generated track distribution parameters meeting a predetermined criteria and the trigger parameter meeting a predetermined criteria, the trigger parameter including a catastrophe bond index corresponding to a predetermined range of values.

13. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the at least one of cellular, geographically and topologically definable units or zones are dynamically adapted by the system during occurrence of the tropical storm.

14. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, further comprising the step of

transmitting the measurement parameters from the measurement devices to the trigger module periodically and on request by the trigger module after a predefinable threshold value is exceeded.

15. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the measurement sensors include sensors for measuring at least one of water and air temperatures.

16. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the track distribution parameters include a definable probability parametrization over the cellular units.

17. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein multistage damage cover systems are activated by the early warning system, and include at least a second stage based on sums of money transferred from user units and stored in a memory unit, which stage can be activated after a predefined damage limit threshold value is exceeded.

18. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein a user profile is established based on user information, wherein by the early warning system, user data is generated based on the trigger parameter and is selected based on the user profile, and the user data is transmitted from the early warning system via a network to a communications device of a user.

19. The automated early warning method according to claim 18, wherein after a threshold value is exceeded by a cumulative trigger parameter, the user data is transmitted from the early warning system to one or more communications devices of users.

20. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the data records include at least one of geographical and topological parameters.

21. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the trigger module is configured in a decentralized manner as an independent network unit, and the early warning system accesses the trigger module via the network based on at least one of periodically, on request, and after predefined time intervals.

22. The automated early warning method according to claim 12, wherein the trigger module determines the data records based on at least one of air pressure parameters, cellular air pressure parameters, interpolated cellular air pressure parameters, trajectory parameters, and stochastic parameters.