Dynamic prediction of road traffic conditions

• US 8,700,296 B2
• Filed: 08/16/2011
• Issued: 04/15/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 03/03/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Inventors: Chapman, Craig H., Scofield, Christopher L.
• Primary Examiner(s): Tran, Khoi
• Assistant Examiner(s): Figueroa, Jaime
• Application Number:
  US13/211,177
• Publication Number:
  US 20120072096A1
• Time in Patent Office: 973 Days
• Field of Search: 701/117, 701/119, 340/995.13
• US Class Current: 701/117
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0133 for classifying traffic situation
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0141 for traffic information dissemination
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096811 where the route is computed offboard
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096838 where the user preferences are taken into account or the user selects one route out of a plurality
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096844 where the complete route is dynamically recomputed based on new data

Abstract

Techniques are described for generating predictions of traffic conditions at one or more indicated times, such as by using probabilistic techniques to assess various input data while producing predictions for each of one or more road segments (e.g., in a real-time manner based on changing current conditions for a network of roads in a given geographic area). In some situations, one or more predictive Bayesian models and corresponding decision trees are automatically created for use in generating the traffic condition predictions for each geographic area of interest, such as based on observed historical traffic conditions for those geographic areas. Predicted traffic condition information may then optionally be used in a variety of ways to assist in travel and for other purposes, such as to plan optimal routes through a network of roads based on predictions about traffic conditions for the roads at multiple times.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving information describing a network of multiple roads in a geographic area, each of the roads having multiple road segments for which traffic congestion is distinctly tracked; and

automatically facilitating navigation of vehicles over the network of roads based on predicted traffic congestion of the roads by, for each of multiple users;

receiving, by one or more configured computing systems of a predictive traffic information provider system, a request from the user for information indicating predicted traffic conditions of roads of the network for travel to an indicated destination;

identifying, by the one or more configured computing systems, a plurality of road segments along one or more routes over the roads of the network to the indicated destination from at least one possible starting position, each of the one or more routes including multiple of the identified road segments;

retrieving, by the one or more configured computing systems, information indicating current conditions that affect traffic on the identified road segments, the indicated current conditions including current weather for the geographic area, current events that are scheduled to occur in the geographic area, current school sessions that are scheduled to occur in the geographic area, and current levels of traffic on other road segments of the roads that are distinct from the identified road segments;

predicting, by the one or more configured computing systems, an expected level of traffic congestion at an indicated time for each of the identified road segments based at least in part on the indicated current conditions;

for each of the one or more routes, determining, by the one or more configured computing systems, a predicted travel time for the route based on the predicted expected traffic congestion levels for the multiple road segments of the route; and

providing, by the one or more configured computing systems, information to the user that indicates the determined predicted travel time for at least one of the routes to the indicated destination, to enable the user to navigate a vehicle over the network of roads based on predicted traffic congestion levels.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein, for each of at least some of the multiple users, the providing of the information to the user includes displaying to the user a map on which multiple route options are indicated and on which an optimal one of the route options is identified.

3. The method of claim 1 further comprising, for each of at least some of the multiple users, after the providing of the information to the user, receiving information indicating updated current conditions, predicting an updated expected level of traffic congestion at the indicated time for each of at least one of the identified road segments at based at least in part on the updated current conditions, and providing updated information to the user that indicates an updated predicted travel time for at least one route to the indicated destination based at least in part on the predicted updated expected levels of traffic congestion.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the predicting of the expected levels of traffic congestion is based on at least one predictive model for the network of roads in the geographic area, and wherein the method further comprises automatically generating the at least one predictive models based at least in part on prior observed levels of traffic congestions for the identified road segments and on prior conditions that affected the prior observed traffic congestion levels.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein, for at least one of the multiple users, the indicated current conditions for use in predicting expected levels of traffic congestion further include current traffic accidents on the roads, current construction activities on the roads, a current time of day, and a current day of week, and the indicated time is a current time.

6. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving, by one or more configured computing systems, information indicating current traffic conditions at a first time for each of one or more of a plurality of road segments of multiple related roads, and information indicating other current conditions at the first time that affect traffic on the plurality of road segments, the other current conditions including multiple of current weather conditions, current events that are scheduled to occur, and current schedules for school sessions;

automatically predicting, by the one or more configured computing systems, multiple distinct levels of traffic congestion at an indicated time for multiple of the plurality of road segments, the automatic predicting being based on the indicated current traffic conditions for the first time and the indicated other current conditions for the first time, and one or more of the predicted traffic congestion levels being distinct from historical average traffic congestion levels corresponding to the indicated time; and

using at least some of the predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein the automatic predicting of the multiple levels of traffic congestion is based on use of at least one predictive model that uses the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other current conditions as input, and includes predicting one of the multiple traffic congestion levels for each of the multiple road segments for the indicated time.

8. The method of claim 7 wherein the at least one predictive model includes a Bayesian network.

9. The method of claim 7 further comprising automatically generating the at least one predictive model based at least in part on observed past traffic congestion levels on the road segments and on past traffic conditions and past other conditions that affected the past traffic congestion levels on the road segments.

10. The method of claim 6 further comprising, after the automatic predicting of the multiple levels of traffic congestion, receiving updated current conditions information that is distinct from the indicated current traffic conditions and the indicated other current conditions, automatically predicting a new level of traffic congestion for the indicated time for each of at least one of the plurality of road segments, and using one or more of the predicted new traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads.

11. The method of claim 10 wherein the using of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads is performed by the one or more configured computing systems and includes providing information about the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to one or more recipients for use, and wherein the using of the predicted new traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads includes providing updated information about the predicted new traffic congestion levels to at least one of the recipients.

12. The method of claim 6 wherein the indicated current traffic conditions for each of the one or more road segments include at least one of an average speed on the road segment and a traffic volume on the road segment.

13. The method of claim 12 wherein the indicated other current conditions include the current weather conditions, the current events that are scheduled to occur, the current schedules for school sessions, current traffic accidents on the plurality of road segments, current construction activities on the plurality of road segments, a current time of day, and a current day of week.

14. The method of claim 13 wherein the automatic predicting of the multiple distinct levels of traffic congestion is further based on information about prior traffic conditions before the first time for one or more of the multiple road segments.

15. The method of claim 6 wherein the received information indicating the current traffic conditions for the one or more road segments is obtained at least in part from a network of multiple traffic sensors such that one or more of the multiple traffic sensors corresponds to each of the one or more road segments.

16. The method of claim 6 wherein the received information indicating the current traffic conditions is obtained at least in part from multiple vehicles traveling the multiple related roads, each vehicle able to determine vehicle travel data that includes at least one of location of the vehicle, speed of the vehicle, and travel direction of the vehicle, and to provide the determined vehicle travel data.

17. The method of claim 6 wherein the received information indicating the current traffic conditions is obtained at least in part from multiple users traveling the multiple related roads, each user having a mobile device operative to provide geo-location data including location of the device.

18. The method of claim 6 wherein the indicated time is a current time, wherein the first time is a prior time within a determined length of time of the current time, and wherein the multiple road segments include the one or more road segments.

19. The method of claim 6 wherein the indicated time is a current time, wherein the first time is the current time, and wherein the multiple road segments are distinct from the one or more road segments.

20. The method of claim 6 wherein the using of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads includes at least one of initiating presentation of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to a user and of providing indications of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to a third party that uses the provided indications to facilitate travel on the roads by others.

21. The method of claim 6 wherein the using of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads includes generating comparative information regarding the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels and other traffic congestion levels for at least some of the multiple road segments, and providing one or more indications of the generated comparative information.

22. The method of claim 6 wherein the using of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads includes:

identifying multiple route options between a starting location and a destination location over the multiple roads, each of the route options including at least one of the multiple road segments;

selecting at least one of the multiple route options as being preferred based at least in part on the predicted traffic congestion levels; and

providing one or more indications of the selected route options.

23. The method of claim 22 wherein the using of the at least some predicted traffic congestion levels to facilitate travel on the roads includes initiating display to a user of a map on which one or more of the multiple route options are indicated.

24. The method of claim 6 wherein the predicted levels of traffic congestion each have at least one associated vehicle speed, and wherein the multiple roads are part of an interconnected network of roads in a single geographic area.

25. A non-transitory computer-readable medium whose stored contents configure a computing system to perform a method, the method comprising:

receiving information indicating current traffic conditions at a first time for each of at least one of multiple road segments of one or more roads, and information indicating other current conditions at the first time that affect traffic on the multiple road segments, the other current conditions including at least one of current weather conditions, current events that are scheduled to occur, and current schedules for school sessions;

predicting, by the configured computing system, traffic conditions at an indicated time for each of one or more of the multiple road segments of the one or more roads based at least in part on the indicated current traffic conditions and on the indicated other current conditions; and

providing one or more indications of the predicted traffic conditions for use in facilitating travel on the one or more roads.

26. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the predicting of the traffic conditions includes use of a predictive Bayesian network model for the one or more roads in order to predict a traffic congestion level at the indicated time for each of the one or more road segments, and wherein the predicted traffic congestion levels are distinct from historical average traffic congestion levels corresponding to the indicated time.

27. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the indicated time is a current time, and wherein the first time is a prior time.

28. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the indicated time is a current time, wherein the first time is the current time, and wherein the one or more road segments are distinct from the at least one road segment.

29. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the method further comprises identifying a route between a starting location and an ending location based at least in part on the predicted traffic conditions, and wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the predicted traffic conditions includes indicating the identified route to a user.

30. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 25 wherein the computer-readable medium is a memory of the configured computing system, and wherein the contents are instructions that when executed program the configured computing system to perform the method.

31. A computing system, comprising:

one or more processors;

a first component configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, predict traffic conditions at an indicated time for each of one or more of multiple road segments of one or more roads based at least in part on obtained information indicating current conditions related to the multiple road segments, the indicated current conditions including multiple of current weather conditions, current scheduled events, current school schedules, and current traffic conditions for at least one of the multiple road segments; and

a second component configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, provide one or more indications of at least one of the predicted traffic conditions for use in facilitating travel on the one or more roads.

32. The computing system of claim 31 further comprising a memory on which is stored a predictive probabilistic model for use in the predicting of the traffic conditions, the predicted traffic conditions including a predicted traffic congestion level for the indicated time for each of the one or more road segments, and wherein the predicted traffic congestion levels are distinct from historical average traffic congestion levels corresponding to the indicated time.

33. The computing system of claim 31 wherein the indicated time is a current time, wherein the indicated current conditions correspond to the current time and include the current traffic conditions for the at least one road segment, and wherein the one or more road segments are distinct from the at least one road segment.

34. The computing system of claim 31 further comprising a third component configured to identify a route between a starting location and an ending location based at least in part on the predicted traffic conditions, wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the at least one predicted traffic conditions includes indicating the identified route to a user, wherein the first component is a dynamic traffic predictor component, and wherein the first and second components each includes software instructions for execution by the one or more processors.

35. The computing system of claim 31 wherein the first component consists of a means for predicting the traffic conditions at the indicated time, and wherein the second component consists of a means for providing the one or more indications of at least one predicted traffic conditions.