Reserve capacity calculating apparatus and method therefor, and computer readable medium

• US 8,886,477 B2
• Filed: 09/16/2011
• Issued: 11/11/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 03/25/2011
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Imahara, Shuichiro, Kubota, Kazuto
• Primary Examiner(s): Kundu, Sujoy
• Assistant Examiner(s): FORTICH, ALVARO E
• Application Number:
  US13/234,528
• Publication Number:
  US 20120245868A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,152 Days
• Field of Search: 702/61
• US Class Current: 702/61
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2310/14 The load or loads being home appliances
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: Y02B 70/3225 Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 20/222 Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving

Abstract

A power consumption distribution calculator uses a predicted outdoor temperature sequence of the customer house for a prediction period at a first date from a first time to a second time, and identifies dates having a sequence part similar to the predicted outdoor temperature sequence in the prediction period, identifies power consumption sequences corresponding to identified dates, and calculate a statistical distribution or a representative value of identified power consumption sequences for a whole period from a third time to the second time, the third time being earlier than the first time. A power consumption predicting unit calculates a predicted power consumption sequence in the prediction period based on the statistical distribution or the representative value. A reserve capacity calculating unit calculates reserve capacity being a difference between a predicted power consumption sequence and a sequence part in the prediction period of the reference power consumption sequence.

Claims

1. A reserve capacity calculating apparatus comprising:

a reference power consumption receiver configured to receive from a demand restraint calculating apparatus a reference power consumption sequence being a power consumption sequence of a first date planned for a customer;

an electric power history database configured to store therein a power consumption sequence of the customer and demand restraint strength with each date, the power consumption sequence being measured by a power measuring instrument;

a temperature history database configured to store therein an outdoor temperature sequence of a customer house with each date, the outdoor temperature sequence being measured by a temperature sensor;

a power consumption distribution calculator configured to (a) use a predicted outdoor temperature sequence given previously of the customer house for a prediction period at the first date from a first time to a second time being later than the first time, (b) identify, in the temperature history database, dates having a sequence part similar to the predicted outdoor temperature sequence in the prediction period, (c) identify, with identified dates, in the electric power history database, power consumption sequences having same demand restraint strength as that of the first date, and (d) calculate a statistical distribution or a representative value of identified power consumption sequences for each of a history used period from a third time to the first time and the prediction period, the third time being earlier than the first time;

a power consumption predicting unit configured to correct the statistical distribution or the representative value of the prediction period based on the power consumption sequence measured for the history used period at the first date and the statistical distribution or the representative value of the history used period and predict a power consumption sequence in the prediction period based on the corrected statistical distribution or the corrected representative value of the prediction period; and

a reserve capacity calculating unit configured to calculate reserve capacity being a difference between a predicted power consumption sequence and a sequence part in the prediction period of the reference power consumption sequence, and to transmit the reserve capacity to the demand restraint calculating apparatus.

2. The apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the power consumption distribution calculator calculates average values and standard deviations at constant intervals in each of the history used period and the prediction period as the statistical distribution or the representative value, and

the power consumption predicting unit calculates a deviation rate from the average values with respect to the power consumption sequence in the history used period at the first date and calculates the predicted power consumption sequence in the prediction period at the first date using the average values and the standard deviations in the prediction period and the deviation rate.

3. The apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the power consumption distribution calculator uses sequences similar to the power consumption sequence at the first date in the history used period, out of the identified power consumption sequences, to calculate the average values and the standard deviations.

4. The apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the power consumption predicting unit obtains the deviation rate by subtracting the average values in the history used period from values at the constant intervals in the history used period with respect to the power consumption sequence of the first date, dividing resultant, values by the standard deviations in the history used period, summing up, and dividing a summed up value by a length of the history used period.

5. The apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the power consumption predicting unit obtains the predicted power consumption sequence by multiplying the deviation rate by standard deviations in the prediction period and adding the averages in the prediction period to multiplied values.

6. The apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a predicted parameter database configured to hold a time, a predicted period length, and a history used period length associated with each other,

wherein the power consumption distribution calculator receives a value of the predicted period length, from the demand restraint calculating apparatus, obtains from the predicted parameter database a history used period length associated with the first time and a received value, and determines an obtained history used period length as a length of the history used period from the third time to the first time.

7. The apparatus according to claim 6, further comprising a predicted parameter learning unit configured to use a power consumption sequence of a past day stored in the electric power history database, the power consumption distribution calculator, and the power consumption predicting unit to determine a history used period length to each of a plurality of predicted period lengths for each of a plurality of times,

wherein the predicted parameter learning unit predicts the power consumption for each of the predicted period lengths for each of the times, and determines the history used period length so that a difference between the predicted power consumption and the power consumption stored in the electric power history database is equal to or smaller than a threshold value.

8. The apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a device configured to receive the predicted outdoor temperature sequence of the customer house from an external temperature predicting apparatus.

9. A processor-implemented reserve capacity calculating method comprising:

receiving from a demand restraint calculating apparatus a reference power consumption sequence being a power consumption sequence of a first date planned for a customer;

storing in an electric power history database a power consumption sequence of the customer and demand restraint strength with each date, the power consumption sequence being measured by a power measuring instrument;

storing in a temperature history database an outdoor temperature sequence of a customer house with each date, the outdoor temperature sequence being measured by a temperature sensor;

(a) using a predicted outdoor temperature sequence given previously of the customer house for a prediction period at the first date from a first time to a second time being later than the first time, (b) identifying, in the temperature history database, dates having a sequence part similar to the predicted outdoor temperature sequence in the prediction period, (c) identifying, with identified dates, in the electric power history database, power consumption sequences having same demand restraint strength as that of the first date, and (d) calculating a statistical distribution or a representative value of identified power consumption sequences for each of a history used period from a third time to the first time and the prediction period, the third time being earlier than the first time;

correcting the statistical distribution or the representative value of the prediction period based on the power consumption sequence measured for the history used period at the first date and the statistical distribution or the representative value of the history used period and predicting a power consumption sequence in the prediction period based on the corrected statistical distribution or the corrected representative value of the prediction period; and

calculating reserve capacity being a difference between a predicted power consumption sequence and a sequence part in the prediction period of the reference power consumption sequence, and to transmit the reserve capacity to the demand restraint calculating apparatus.

10. A non-transitory computer readable medium storing a program, when executed by a computer, causing the computer to perform the steps comprising:

receiving from a demand restraint calculating apparatus a reference power consumption sequence being a power consumption sequence of a first date planned for a customer;

storing in an electric power history database a power consumption sequence of the customer and demand restraint strength with each date, the power consumption sequence being measured by a power measuring instrument;

storing in a temperature history database an outdoor temperature sequence of a customer house with each date, the outdoor temperature sequence being measured by a temperature sensor;

(a) using a predicted outdoor temperature sequence given previously of the customer house for a prediction period at the first date from a first time to a second time being later than the first time, (b) identifying, in the temperature history database, dates having a sequence part similar to the predicted outdoor temperature sequence in the prediction period, (c) identifying, with identified dates, in the electric power history database, power consumption sequences having same demand restraint strength as that of the first date, and (d) calculating a statistical distribution or a representative value of identified power consumption sequences for each of a history used period from a third time to the first time and the prediction period, the third time being earlier than the first time;

correcting the statistical distribution or the representative value of the prediction period based on the power consumption sequence measured for the history used period at the first date and the statistical distribution or the representative value of the history used period and predicting a power consumption sequence in the predication period based on the corrected statistical distribution or the corrected representative value of the prediction period; and

calculating reserve capacity being a difference between a predicted power consumption sequence and a sequence part in the prediction period of the reference power consumption sequence, and to transmit the reserve capacity to the demand restraint calculating apparatus.