Method and system for detecting anomalies in web analytics data

• US 8,972,332 B2
• Filed: 10/10/2013
• Issued: 03/03/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 10/20/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Google LLC (Alphabet Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Google Inc. (Alphabet Inc.)
• Inventors: Ruhl, Jan Matthias, Moon, Hui Sok, Mui, Lik, Tulsi, Japjit, Molen, Douglas Van Der
• Primary Examiner(s): Gaffin, Jeffrey A
• Assistant Examiner(s): Smith, Paulinho E
• Application Number:
  US14/051,190
• Publication Number:
  US 20140040180A1
• Time in Patent Office: 509 Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/958 Organisation or management of web site content, e.g. publishing, maintaining pages or automatic linking
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/048 Fuzzy inferencing

Abstract

A server system stores web analytics data for a web page in a device. The web analytics data comprises a plurality of prior time-value pairs, each pair including a value of an attribute associated with the web page and a time associated with the value. For a particular attribute, the server system collects a new time-value pair including a new value associated with the web page and a new time indicating when the value was determined. The server system estimates a predicted value for the attribute and an associated error-variance at the new time by applying a forecasting model to the prior time-value pairs in respective subsets of the web analytics data. The collected new time-value pair is tagged if its value is outside the error variance of the predicted value for the particular attribute.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for identifying events of interest in web analytics data, the method comprising:

at a computer server having one or more processors and memory for storing programs to be executed by the one or more processors;

storing web analytics data for a web page in a device, wherein the web analytics data comprises a plurality of prior time-value pairs, each time-value pair including a value of one of a plurality of attributes associated with the web page and a time associated with the value;

collecting a new time-value pair for a particular attribute of the plurality of attributes, the new time-value pair including a new value associated with the web page and a new time when the new value was determined;

estimating a predicted value for the particular attribute and an associated error-variance at the new time for the predicted value by applying a forecasting model to the plurality of prior time-value pairs in respective subsets of the web analytics data; and

for the new time-value pair and the particular attribute, determining a significance factor such that, when the error-variance is multiplied by the significance factor, the value of the new time-value pair is inside the factored error-variance of the predicted value.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

in response to a request from a client application for analytics information, the request including a significance threshold for one or more of the attributes, reporting the new time-value pair to the client application if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds the significance threshold.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

adding the new time-value pair to the web analytics data for the web page;

adding a tag to the new time-value pair indicating whether the new value is an anomaly, wherein the new value is an anomaly if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds a significance threshold; and

adding the significance factor to the tag if the new value is an anomaly.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

storing the web analytics data for a fixed time window into the past;

deleting one or more oldest time-value pairs from previously collected time series data after estimating the predicted value and the associated error-variances; and

appending the new time-value pair to the end of the collected web analytics data.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the attributes comprise a plurality of metrics and dimensions associated with the web site.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the forecasting model is selected from a plurality of forecasting models that include at least one of a linear regression model and a Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the web analytics data includes aggregated web analytics data, the computer-implemented method further comprising:

aggregating raw or sessionized web traffic data to generate the aggregated web analytics data for attributes of interest and storing the aggregated web analytics data in addition to the raw or sessionized web traffic data.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein estimating a predicted value for the particular attribute comprises:

estimating a set of predicted values for the particular attribute and associated error-variances at the new time for the predicted values by applying a plurality of forecasting models to the plurality of prior time-value pairs in respective subsets of the web analytics data.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8, further comprising:

tagging the collected new time-value pair if the value of the new time-value pair is outside the error variance of each of a first subset of the predicted values of the forecasting models for the particular attribute.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

storing the time-value pairs tagged as anomalies such that the stored time-value pairs are ready to be served to a user at a client application in response to a user request for the anomalies.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the storing step comprises:

storing web analytics data at one or more predefined time intervals from a plurality of data sources.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the collecting step comprises:

collecting the new time-value pair without disturbing the previously stored web analytics data.

26. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 11, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

storing web analytics data at one or more predefined time intervals from a plurality of data sources.

27. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 11, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

collecting the new time-value pair without disturbing the previously stored web analytics data.

13. A server system for identifying anomalies in web analytics data, wherein the server system is connected to one or more client devices through a network, the server system comprising:

one or more processors for executing programs; and

memory to store data and to store one or more programs to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs comprising instructions for;

storing web analytics data for a web page in a device, wherein the web analytics data comprises a plurality of prior time-value pairs, each time-value pair including a value of one of a plurality of attributes associated with the web page and a time associated with the value;

collecting a new time-value pair for a particular attribute of the plurality of attributes, the new time-value pair including a new value associated with the web page and a new time when the value was determined;

estimating a predicted value for the attribute and an associated error-variance at the new time for the predicted value by applying a forecasting model to the plurality of prior time-value pairs in respective subsets of the web analytics data; and

for the new time-value pair and the particular attribute, determining a significance factor such that, when the error-variance is multiplied by the significance factor, the value of the new time-value pair is inside the factored error-variance of the predicted value.

14. The server system of claim 13, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

in response to a request from a client application for analytics information, the request including a significance threshold for one or more of the attributes, reporting the new time-value pair to the client application if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds the significance threshold.

15. The server system of claim 13, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

adding the new time-value pair to the web analytics data for the web page;

adding a tag to the new time-value pair indicating whether the new value is an anomaly, wherein the new value is an anomaly if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds a significance threshold; and

adding the significance factor to the tag if the new value is an anomaly.

16. The server system of claim 13, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

storing the web analytics data for a fixed time window into the past;

deleting one or more oldest time-value pairs from previously collected time series data after estimating the predicted value and the associated error-variances; and

appending the new time-value pair to the end of the collected web analytics data.

17. The server system of claim 13, wherein the attributes comprise a plurality of metrics and dimensions associated with the web site.

18. The server system of claim 13, wherein the forecasting model is selected from a plurality of forecasting models that include at least one of a linear regression model and a Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model.

19. The server system of claim 13, wherein the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

storing web analytics data at one or more predefined time intervals from a plurality of data sources.

20. The server system of claim 13, wherein the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

collecting the new time-value pair without disturbing the previously stored web analytics data.

21. A non-transitory computer readable-storage medium storing one or more programs for execution by one or more processors, the one or more programs comprising instructions for:

storing web analytics data for a web page in a device, wherein the web analytics data comprises a plurality of prior time-value pairs, each time-value pair including a value of one of a plurality of attributes associated with the web page and a time associated with the value;

collecting a new time-value pair for the particular attribute, the new time-value pair including a new value associated with the web page and a new time when the value was determined;

estimating a predicted value for the attribute and associated error-variance at the new time for the predicted value by applying a forecasting model to the plurality of prior time-value pairs in respective subsets of the web analytics data; and

for the new time-value pair and the particular attribute, determining a significance factor such that, when the error-variance is multiplied by the significance factor, the value of the new time-value pair is inside the factored error-variance of the predicted value.

22. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 21, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

in response to a request from a client application for analytics information, the request including a significance threshold for one or more of the attributes, reporting the new time-value pair to the client application if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds the significance threshold.

23. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 21, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

adding the new time-value pair to the web analytics data for the web page;

adding a tag to the new time-value pair indicating whether the new value is an anomaly, wherein the new value is an anomaly if the significance factor for the new time-value pair exceeds a significance threshold; and

adding the significance factor to the tag if the new value is an anomaly.

24. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 21, the one or more programs further comprising instructions for:

storing the web analytics data for a fixed time window into the past;

deleting one or more oldest time-value pairs from previously collected time series data after estimating the predicted value and the associated error-variances; and

appending the new time-value pair to the end of the collected web analytics data.

25. The computer readable-storage medium of claim 21, wherein the forecasting model is selected from a plurality of forecasting models that include at least one of a linear regression model and a Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model.