Flight trajectory prediction with application of environmental conditions

• US 9,098,997 B2
• Filed: 09/30/2011
• Issued: 08/04/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 09/30/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Stewart, Tamara S., Bailey, Louis J., Tytler, Charles J.
• Primary Examiner(s): Olszewski, John R
• Assistant Examiner(s): MELTON, TODD M
• Application Number:
  US13/250,352
• Publication Number:
  US 20130085672A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,404 Days
• Field of Search: 701/528, 701/10, 701/120, 452/8, 4 1/0
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/003 Flight plan management
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0034 Assembly of a flight plan
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0039 Modification of a flight plan

Abstract

Systems and methods for generating a predicted flight trajectory using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, environmental information, historical data or derived flight information from aircraft messaging which can be used for the transmission of environmental data. The generated trajectory prediction is assigned a level of confidence based on fidelity, merit or accuracy. The level of predicted accuracy is based on the number of and sources of the specific information, time, distance or flight phase. The predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and also includes the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations.

Claims

1. A flight trajectory prediction system comprising one or more processors programmed to perform the following operations:

(a) obtaining flight information and aircraft state information from a flight object representing a flight of an aircraft;

(b) determining whether the obtained information is sufficient to predict a trajectory; and

(c) calculating a predicted flight trajectory in response to a determination by operation (b) that the obtained information is sufficient to predict a flight trajectory, wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated using aircraft messaging, flight histories, state data and current and forecast environmental information,

wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated without using aircraft performance data, and

wherein the predicted flight trajectory comprises pseudo-waypoints not identified in the flight information and environmental conditions at those pseudo-waypoints.

2. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to attempt to derive missing information in response to a determination by operation (b) that the obtained flight information is not sufficient to predict the flight trajectory.

3. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to attempt to extract the missing information from flight information retrieved from a knowledge system.

4. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to attempt to extract the missing information from a flight information object.

5. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to send a request for missing information in response to a failure to determine the missing information.

6. The system as recited in claim 5, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to analyze costs associated with aircraft messaging before requesting missing information.

7. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein operation (c) comprises iteratively computing predicted flight trajectories with the application of environmental conditions.

8. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein operation (c) comprises computing metadata for waypoints and pseudo-waypoints of the predicted flight trajectory.

9. The system as recited in claim 1, wherein one of said one or more processors is further programmed to calculate a level of confidence or a level of accuracy of the predicted flight trajectory.

10. The system as recited in claim 1 wherein said one or more processors are further programmed to obtain user configuration information comprising trajectory specification requirements which identify types of metadata to be included in said predicted flight trajectory to be calculated in operation (c).

11. The system as recited in claim 10, wherein multiple predicted flight trajectories for various users at varying levels of confidence and accuracy and in accordance with varying trajectory specification requirements are calculated in operation (c).

12. A method, performed by one or more processors, for predicting a flight trajectory comprising:

(a) obtaining flight information and aircraft state information from a flight object;

(b) determining whether the obtained information is sufficient to predict a trajectory; and

(c) calculating a predicted flight trajectory in response to a determination by operation (b) that the obtained information is sufficient to predict a flight trajectory, wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated using aircraft messaging, flight histories, state data and current and forecast environmental information,

wherein the predicted flight trajectory is calculated without using aircraft performance data, and

wherein the predicted flight trajectory comprises pseudo-waypoints not identified in the flight information and environmental conditions at those pseudo-waypoints.

13. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising attempting to derive missing information in response to a determination in operation (b) that the obtained flight information is not sufficient to predict the flight trajectory.

14. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising attempting to extract the missing information from a flight trajectory retrieved from a knowledge system in response to a failure to determine that missing information.

15. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising attempting to extract the missing information from a flight information object.

16. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising sending a request for missing information in response to a failure to determine the missing information.

17. The method as recited in claim 16, further comprising analyzing costs associated with aircraft messaging before requesting missing information.

18. The method as recited in claim 12 wherein operation (c) comprises iteratively computing predicted flight trajectories with the application of environmental conditions.

19. The method as recited in claim 12 wherein operation (c) comprises computing metadata for waypoints and pseudo-waypoints of the predicted flight trajectory.

20. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising calculating a level of confidence in or a level of accuracy of the predicted flight trajectory.

21. The method as recited in claim 12 further comprising the operation of obtaining user configuration information comprising trajectory specification requirements which identify types of metadata to be included in said predicted flight trajectory to be calculated in operation (c).

22. The method as recited in claim 21, wherein multiple predicted flight trajectories for various users at varying levels of confidence and accuracy and in accordance with varying trajectory specification requirements are calculated in operation (c).

23. A system comprising:

a trajectory object manager which generates a trajectory object based at least in part on a trajectory type and information in a flight object if the information in the flight object is sufficient to calculate a trajectory; and

a trajectory predictions processor which calculates a predicted flight trajectory using aircraft messaging, flight histories, state data and current and forecast and without using aircraft performance data,

wherein the predicted flight trajectory comprises pseudo-waypoints not identified in the flight object and environmental conditions at those pseudo-waypoints.

24. The system as recited in claim 23, wherein said trajectory object manager is programmed to perform the following operations if the information in the flight object is not sufficient to calculate the predicted trajectory:

(a) derive missing information;

(b) extract the missing information from the available flight information in response to a failure to determine that missing information in operation (a); and

(c) send a request for missing information in response to a failure to determine the missing information in operations (a) and (b).

25. The system as recited in claim 23, wherein said trajectory predictions processor calculates a level of confidence or a level of accuracy of the predicted flight trajectory.

26. The system as recited in claim 23, wherein said one or more processors are further programmed to obtain user configuration information comprising trajectory specification requirements which identify types of metadata to be included in said predicted flight trajectory calculated in operation (c), and wherein said calculation of the predicted flight trajectory comprises:

(i) creating or updating a trajectory object comprising trajectory points of a flight trajectory and related metadata;

(ii) calculating metadata of the identified types for at least some of the trajectory points stored in the trajectory object;

(iii) applying environmental data corresponding to the trajectory points stored in the trajectory object;

(iv) recalculating at least some of the metadata of the identified types based on the applied environmental information;

(v) determining whether to adjust the locations of at least some of the trajectory points or not based on the applied environmental information;

(vi) adjusting the locations of at least some trajectory points in response to a determination in operation (v) that such locations should be adjusted; and

(vii) repeating operations (iii) through (v) after operation (vi) has been performed.