Estimating incident duration

• US 9,111,442 B2
• Filed: 03/23/2012
• Issued: 08/18/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 03/23/2012
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: He, Qing, Jintanakul, Klayut, Kamarianakis, Ioannis, Wynter, Laura
• Primary Examiner(s): Trammell, James
• Assistant Examiner(s): Stroud, James E
• Application Number:
  US13/428,186
• Publication Number:
  US 20130253808A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,243 Days
• Field of Search: 701/117, 701/118, 701/119, 701/421, 701/422, 701/423, 701/424, 180/167, 180/168
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0104 Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0116 from roadside infrastructure, e.g. beacons
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0133 for classifying traffic situation

Abstract

A method, an apparatus and an article of manufacture for incident duration prediction. The method includes obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident in a selected geographic area, obtaining traffic data for the selected geographic area, spatially and temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data to generate incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident, and predicting incident duration of at least one additional traffic-related incident based on the incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident.

Claims

1. A method for incident duration prediction carried out by a computing device via a computer-aided dispatch system module, a traffic measurement detector system module, a spatial-temporal module, and a regression model module, wherein the method comprises:

obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident in a selected geographic area, wherein said incident data comprises incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said obtaining incident data is carried out by the computer-aided dispatch system module executing on the computing device;

obtaining traffic data in real-time for the selected geographic area from a system of one or more traffic measurement detectors;

spatially and temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data to generate incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said spatially and temporally associating is carried out by the spatial-temporal module executing on the computing device; and

predicting incident duration of at least one additional traffic-related incident using one or more regression models, wherein said predicting is based on the incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident and incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one additional traffic-related incident via implementing a hybrid predictive model that combines an algorithm for recursive partitioning based on at least one permutation test with a quantile regression model by employing a regression tree wherein a regression model is fitted to each final node of the tree to provide predicted values of incident duration, and wherein said predicting is carried out by the regression model module executing on the computing device.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining incident data further comprises classifying incident types into at least one group.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the at least one group comprises at least one of collision, disabled vehicle and traffic hazard.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident in the selected geographic area comprises obtaining incident data from a source providing details on incident characteristics.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining traffic data for the selected geographic area comprises obtaining traffic data from a road surveillance system.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein spatially associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data comprises matching the at least one incident with a closest traffic data record that satisfies a location description of the at least one incident.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

identifying at least one upstream traffic detector and at least one downstream traffic detector from the closest traffic detector that satisfies the location description of the at least one incident.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data comprises applying an incident detection algorithm to trace a difference in occupancy between adjacent traffic detectors through time and to detect an incident when the difference changes.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the incident detection algorithm associates incident data with upstream and downstream traffic data, locates a time stamp when a shockwave hits a nearest upstream detector, and records traffic data before and after the at least one incident'"'"'s time of occurrence.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the traffic data comprises an environmental condition.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the traffic data comprises sequential traffic measurements for the geographic area.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein the traffic data comprises at least one temporal indicator.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the at least one temporal indicator comprises at least one of time of day and day of week.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the incident data comprises at least one of incident severity and incident clearance time.

15. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

incorporating traffic data from before and after the at least one incident occurrence.

16. A method for incident duration prediction carried out by a computing device via a computer-aided dispatch system module, and a regression model module, wherein the method comprises:

obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said incident data comprises incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one traffic-related incident, and wherein said obtaining incident data is carried out by the computer-aided dispatch system module executing on the computing device;

predicting incident duration of at least one additional traffic-related incident based on the incident data for the at least one traffic-related incident and incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one additional traffic-related incident by implementing a predictive model that combines an algorithm for recursive partitioning based on at least one permutation test with a quantile regression model by employing a regression tree wherein a regression model is fitted to each final node of the tree to provide predicted values of incident duration, and wherein said predicting is carried out by the regression model module executing on the computing device; and

calibrating the quantile regression model without traffic data to predict the incident duration of the at least one additional traffic-related incident without traffic data, wherein said calibrating is carried out by the regression model module executing on the computing device.

17. An article of manufacture comprising a computer readable storage medium having computer readable instructions tangibly embodied thereon which, when implemented, cause a computing device to carry out a plurality of method steps via a computer-aided dispatch system module, a traffic measurement detector system module, a spatial-temporal module, and a regression model module, said plurality of method steps comprising:

obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident in a selected geographic area, wherein said incident data comprises incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said obtaining incident data is carried out by the computer-aided dispatch system module executing on the computing device;

obtaining traffic data in real-time for the selected geographic area from a system of one or more traffic measurement detectors;

spatially and temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data to generate incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said spatially and temporally associating is carried out by the spatial-temporal module executing on the computing device; and

predicting incident duration of at least one additional traffic-related incident using one or more regression models, wherein said predicting is based on the incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident and incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one additional traffic-related incident via implementing a hybrid predictive model that combines an algorithm for recursive partitioning based on at least one permutation test with a quantile regression model by employing a regression tree wherein a regression model is fitted to each final node of the tree to provide predicted values of incident duration, and wherein said predicting is carried out by the regression model module executing on the computing device.

18. The article of manufacture of claim 17, wherein temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data comprises temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data applying an incident detection algorithm to trace a difference in occupancy between adjacent traffic detectors through time and to detect an incident when the difference changes.

19. A system for incident duration prediction carried out by a computing device via a computer-aided dispatch system module, a traffic measurement detector system module, a spatial-temporal module, and a regression model module, comprising:

a memory; and

at least one processor coupled to the memory and operative for;

obtaining incident data for at least one traffic-related incident in a selected geographic area, wherein said incident data comprises incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said obtaining incident data is carried out by the computer-aided dispatch system module executing on the computing device;

obtaining traffic data in real-time for the selected geographic area from a system of one or more traffic measurement detectors;

spatially and temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data to generate incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident, wherein said spatially and temporally associating is carried out by the spatial-temporal module executing on the computing device; and

predicting incident duration of at least one additional traffic-related incident using one or more regression models, wherein said predicting is based on the incident duration data for the at least one traffic-related incident and incident type, one or more incident characteristics, and spatio-temporal information corresponding to the at least one additional traffic-related incident via implementing a hybrid predictive model that combines an algorithm for recursive partitioning based on at least one permutation test with a quantile regression model by employing a regression tree wherein a regression model is fitted to each final node of the tree to provide predicted values of incident duration, and wherein said predicting is carried out by the regression model module executing on the computing device.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the at least one processor coupled to the memory operative for temporally associating the at least one traffic-related incident with the traffic data is further operative for applying an incident detection algorithm to trace a difference in occupancy between adjacent traffic detectors through time and to detect an incident when the difference changes.