Methods and apparatus to calculate video-on-demand and dynamically inserted advertisement viewing probability

• US 9,277,265 B2
• Filed: 02/10/2015
• Issued: 03/01/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 02/11/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Nielsen Company LLC (MOOD Media Corporation)
• Original Assignee: The Nielsen Company LLC (MOOD Media Corporation)
• Inventors: Wood, Benjamin, Coughlin, John Charles, Poppie, Molly, Kramer, Marie, Fuhrer, Brian, Borawski, Albert T., Milavsky, Joseph G., Donato, Paul, Shankar, Balachander, Kurzynski, David J.
• Primary Examiner(s): Goodarzi, Nasser
• Assistant Examiner(s): Pierorazio, Michael B
• Application Number:
  US14/618,658
• Publication Number:
  US 20150229979A1
• Time in Patent Office: 385 Days
• Field of Search: 725/14
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/23424 involving splicing one content stream with another content stream, e.g. for inserting or substituting an advertisement
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/2407 Monitoring of transmitted content, e.g. distribution time, number of downloads arrangements for monitoring programmes for broadcast or for distribution combined with broadcast H04H20/14
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/251 Learning process for intelligent management, e.g. learning user preferences for recommending movies details of learning user preferences for the retrieval of video data in a video database G06F16/739; computer systems using learning methods G06N3/08
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/252 Processing of multiple end-users' preferences to derive collaborative data
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/25883 being end-user demographical data, e.g. age, family status or address arrangements for identifying locations of users in broadcast systems H04H60/52
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/2668 Creating a channel for a dedicated end-user group, e.g. insertion of targeted commercials based on end-user profiles information retrieval from the Internet by querying with filtering and personalisation G06F16/9535; arrangements for replacing or switching information during the broadcast H04H20/10; push services over packet-switching network H04L12/1859; adaptation of message content in packet-switching networks H04L51/063
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/44222 Analytics of user selections, e.g. selection of programs or purchase activity monitoring of user selections in data processing systems G06F11/34; arrangements for monitoring the user's behaviour or opinions in broadcast systems H04H60/33
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/4663 involving probabilistic networks, e.g. Bayesian networks
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/4667 Processing of monitored end-user data, e.g. trend analysis based on the log file of viewer selections
• CPC Class Codes: H04N 21/812 involving advertisement data advertising per se G06Q30/02

Abstract

Methods, apparatus, systems and articles of manufacture are disclosed to calculate video-on-demand viewing probability. Example methods disclosed herein include identifying a first set of households associated with a target set of categories that presented a first media having a first telecast delay, calculating first total tuning minutes and first total exposure minutes for the first set of households, identifying a second set of households that presented the first media having the first telecast delay and having a portion of the target set of categories, the second set of households having second total tuning minutes and second total exposure minutes for each category in the second set of households, calculating a household tuning proportion based on the first and second total tuning minutes, and calculating a household exposure proportion based on the first and second total exposure minutes, and calculating the panelist viewing probability associated with the first telecast delay based on a ratio of the household exposure proportion and the household tuning proportion.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method to calculate a panelist viewing probability, comprising:

identifying, with a processor, a first set of households associated with a target set of categories that presented a first media having a first telecast delay;

calculating, with the processor, first total tuning minutes and first total exposure minutes for the first set of households;

identifying, with the processor, a second set of households that presented the first media having the first telecast delay and having a portion of the target set of categories, the second set of households having second total tuning minutes and second total exposure minutes;

for each category in the second set of households, calculating, with the processor, a household tuning proportion based on the first and second total tuning minutes, and calculating a household exposure proportion based on the first and second total exposure minutes; and

calculating, with the processor, the panelist viewing probability associated with the first telecast delay based on a ratio of the household exposure proportion and the household tuning proportion.

2. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, further comprising identifying a second telecast delay associated with the first media.

3. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 2, further comprising:

identifying a third set of households associated with the target set of characteristics and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay; and

identifying a fourth set of households associated with the portion of the target set of categories and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay.

4. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 3, further comprising determining at least one of an increasing panelist viewing probability or a decreasing panelist viewing probability associated with the second telecast delay.

5. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, wherein the first telecast delay is associated with presentation of the first media without delayed viewing behavior.

6. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, wherein the first telecast delay comprises a value of a number of days since an initial presentation of the first media.

7. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, wherein the target set of categories comprises demographic characteristics of representative panelists in the first set of households.

8. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, wherein the target set of categories comprises at least one of households tuned to a particular station, households associated with a particular education level, households with a particular number of television sets, households tuned to a station during a particular daypart, or households having a particular life stage.

9. A computer-implemented method as defined in claim 1, wherein the second set of households is identified in response to the first set of households failing to meet a threshold quantity.

10. An apparatus to calculate a panelist viewing probability, comprising:

a categorizer to identify a first set of households associated with a target set of categories that presented a first media having a first telecast delay;

a proportion manager to;

calculate first total tuning minutes and first total exposure minutes for the first set of households;

identify a second set of households that presented the first media having the first telecast delay and having a portion of the target set of categories, the second set of households having second total tuning minutes and second total exposure minutes;

for each category in the second set of households, calculate a household tuning proportion based on the first and second total tuning minutes and calculate a household exposure proportion based on the first and second total exposure minutes; and

a probability engine to calculate the panelist viewing probability associated with the first telecast delay based on a ratio of the household exposure proportion and the household tuning proportion.

11. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, wherein the categorizer is to identify a second telecast delay associated with the first media.

12. An apparatus as defined in claim 11, wherein the categorizer is to:

identify a third set of households associated with the target set of characteristics and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay; and

identify a fourth set of households associated with the portion of the target set of categories and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay.

13. An apparatus as defined in claim 12, wherein the probability engine is to determine at least one of an increasing panelist viewing probability or a decreasing panelist viewing probability associated with the second telecast delay.

14. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, wherein the categorizer is to identify the first telecast delay is associated with presentation of the first media without delayed viewing behavior.

15. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, wherein the categorizer is to identify the first telecast delay comprises a value of a number of days since an initial presentation of the first media.

16. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, further comprising a category manager to identify the target set of categories comprises demographic characteristics of representative panelists in the first set of households.

17. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, wherein the categorizer is to identify at least one of households tuned to a particular station, households associated with a particular education level, households with a particular number of television sets, households tuned to a station during a particular daypart, or households having a particular life stage.

18. An apparatus as defined in claim 10, further comprising a category manager to identify the second set of households when the first set of households fails to meet a threshold quantity.

19. A tangible machine readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to at least:

identify a first set of households associated with a target set of categories that presented a first media having a first telecast delay;

calculate first total tuning minutes and first total exposure minutes for the first set of households;

identify a second set of households that presented the first media having the first telecast delay and having a portion of the target set of categories, the second set of households having second total tuning minutes and second total exposure minutes;

for each category in the second set of households, calculate a household tuning proportion based on the first and second total tuning minutes, and calculating a household exposure proportion based on the first and second total exposure minutes; and

calculate the panelist viewing probability associated with the first telecast delay based on a ratio of the household exposure proportion and the household tuning proportion.

20. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify a second telecast delay associated with the first media.

21. A storage medium as defined in claim 20, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to:

identify a third set of households associated with the target set of characteristics and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay; and

identify a fourth set of households associated with the portion of the target set of categories and that presented the first media having the second telecast delay.

22. A storage medium as defined in claim 21, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to determine at least one of an increasing panelist viewing probability or a decreasing panelist viewing probability associated with the second telecast delay.

23. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify the first telecast delay as being associated with presentation of the first media without delayed viewing behavior.

24. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify the first telecast delay as a value of a number of days since an initial presentation of the first media.

25. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify the target set of categories as demographic characteristics of representative panelists in the first set of households.

26. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify the target set of categories as being at least one of households tuned to a particular station, households associated with a particular education level, households with a particular number of television sets, households tuned to a station during a particular daypart, or households having a particular life stage.

27. A storage medium as defined in claim 19, wherein the instructions, when executed, further cause the machine to identify the second set of households in response to the first set of households failing to meet a threshold quantity.