Context-aware prediction in medical systems
First Claim
1. A method of context-aware prediction of medical conditions, comprising:
- by a first computing device executing instructions from a non-transitory computer-readable medium for;
receiving contextual data related to at least one of environmental, physiological, behavioral, and historical context;
receiving outcome data related to at least one outcome;
creating a feature set from the contextual data;
selecting a subset of features from the feature set;
assigning a score to each feature in the subset of features according to a probability that the feature is a predictor of the at least one outcome;
generating a characteristic curve for the at least one outcome from the subset of features, the characteristic curve based on the scores of the features in the subset of features;
calculating an area under the characteristic curve;
identifying, using the area under the characteristic curve, whether the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome;
responsive to identifying that the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome, generating a prediction model relating the subset of features to the at least one outcome; and
providing to a display device for display a prediction of a likelihood of occurrence of the at least one outcome by applying the prediction model to data received from a monitoring device,wherein generating the characteristic curve includes iteratively;
setting a probability threshold;
selecting a feature group from the subset of features, wherein, for each feature in the feature group, the assigned score is greater than the probability threshold;
determining for the contextual data of features in the feature group a true positive rate and a false positive rate of prediction of the outcome; and
plotting the true positive rate and the false positive rate for the probability threshold.
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Abstract
A method includes receiving contextual data related to at least one of environmental, physiological, behavioral, and historical context, and receiving outcome data related to at least one outcome. The method further includes creating a feature set from the contextual data, selecting a subset of features from the feature set, assigning a score to each feature in the subset of features according to the probability that the feature is a predictor of the at least one outcome, and generating a characteristic curve for the at least one outcome from the subset of features, the characteristic curve being based on the scoring. The method further includes calculating the area under the characteristic curve, and using, the area under the characteristic curve, identifying whether the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome.
13 Citations
17 Claims
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1. A method of context-aware prediction of medical conditions, comprising:
by a first computing device executing instructions from a non-transitory computer-readable medium for; receiving contextual data related to at least one of environmental, physiological, behavioral, and historical context; receiving outcome data related to at least one outcome; creating a feature set from the contextual data; selecting a subset of features from the feature set; assigning a score to each feature in the subset of features according to a probability that the feature is a predictor of the at least one outcome; generating a characteristic curve for the at least one outcome from the subset of features, the characteristic curve based on the scores of the features in the subset of features; calculating an area under the characteristic curve; identifying, using the area under the characteristic curve, whether the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome; responsive to identifying that the subset of features is a suitable predictor for the at least one outcome, generating a prediction model relating the subset of features to the at least one outcome; and providing to a display device for display a prediction of a likelihood of occurrence of the at least one outcome by applying the prediction model to data received from a monitoring device, wherein generating the characteristic curve includes iteratively; setting a probability threshold; selecting a feature group from the subset of features, wherein, for each feature in the feature group, the assigned score is greater than the probability threshold; determining for the contextual data of features in the feature group a true positive rate and a false positive rate of prediction of the outcome; and plotting the true positive rate and the false positive rate for the probability threshold. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A system for context-aware prediction of medical conditions, comprising:
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a first computing device comprising a memory including processor-executable instructions and a processor configured to execute instructions from the memory;
wherein the instructions include instructions for the processor to;receive contextual data and outcome data; create a feature set from the contextual data; select a plurality of feature subsets from the feature set; apply each of the plurality of feature subsets and the outcome data to a classifier, and determine a score for each of the plurality of feature subsets; select a preferred feature subset based on the score for each of the plurality of feature subsets; and generate a prediction model of an outcome using the preferred feature subset; and an interface providing access to the prediction model by a second computing device; wherein the prediction model is configured to input subject data received from a monitoring device, make a prediction based on the received subject data regarding a likelihood of the outcome occurring, and output the prediction to the second computing device, wherein the outcome data represents at least one outcome, and wherein the instructions to determine the score for each of the plurality of feature subsets includes instructions for the processor to, for each feature subset; use the classifier to determine a probability measure for each feature in the feature subset, the probability measure being an indication of how predictive the feature is for an outcome of the at least one outcome; create a characteristic curve of true positive rate versus false positive rate, wherein each point of the characteristic curve represents a portion of the feature set, and each portion of the feature set is selected based on a probability measure threshold; and calculate the score as an area under the characteristic curve. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17)
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Specification