A kind of epidemic Forecasting Methodology based on considering quarantine measures

A kind of epidemic Forecasting Methodology based on considering quarantine measures

  • CN 101,794,342 B
  • Filed: 09/30/2009
  • Issued: 09/09/2015
  • Est. Priority Date: 09/30/2009
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. , based on the epidemic Forecasting Methodology considering quarantine measures, it is characterized in that, comprise following steps:

  • (1) by floating population'"'"'s ratio, epidemic situation statistics, infectious disease basic parameter, epidemic situation controling parameters unbalanced input, variable coefficient Infection Dynamics Model, the development of prediction epidemic situation, namely solve Susceptible population'"'"'s probability distribution density of prediction, latent period crowd'"'"'s probability distribution density, morbidity crowd probability distribution density, accumulative morbidity crowd probability distribution density, shift out crowd'"'"'s probability distribution density;

    Wherein,Epidemic situation statistics comprises;

    the ratio of susceptible person, the ratio sending out patient, latent period person ratio, the person of shifting out ratio;

    Infectious disease basic parameter comprises;

    latent period distribution profile, morbidity extended period distribution profile;

    Epidemic situation controling parameters is the parameter of control function, comprising;

    initially isolation rate, target isolation rate, control measure entry-into-force time, the control efficiency factor;

    Described Basic equation group that is non-linear, variable coefficient Infection Dynamics Model is as follows;

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