Medium and long term predication method for necessities of life

Medium and long term predication method for necessities of life

  • CN 103,617,468 A
  • Filed: 12/13/2013
  • Published: 03/05/2014
  • Est. Priority Date: 12/13/2013
  • Status: Active Application
First Claim
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1. one way of life necessity medium-and long-term forecasting method, is characterized in that, key step is:

  • (1), by commodity historical data input database storage, storage data analysis is arranged;

    (2) build commodity historical data tendency trend map, judge whether to use described Forecasting Methodology to carry out future trend prediction;

    Judge whether to exist exceptional value, if existed, after rejecting, again enter and judge whether to use described Forecasting Methodology to carry out future trend prediction;

    (3) according to commodity historical data, build time series { Y t;

    (4) determine the smoothing factor α

    of each index;

    (5) determine initial value with (6) each parameter of Comprehensive Model, builds linear trend predictive equation, and formula is as follows;

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