Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system
Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system
 CN 1,221,811 C
 Filed: 12/16/1999
 Issued: 10/05/2005
 Est. Priority Date: 12/16/1999
 Status: Active Grant
First Claim
1. , a kind of Worldwide strong seism tendency Forecasting Methodology is characterized in that, this method possesses following steps:
 A, initialization step, it comprisesA1, area dividing step mark off 29 seismic regions in order to earthquake prediction with global yardstick by global macroseism earthquake centre distribution situation;
A2, data acquisition step, collection is in order to carry out the historical earthquake phenomenon data of earthquake prediction, the element of time that the historical earthquake phenomenon data of being gathered will possess has been certain time since 1900, the space key element is certain zone in 29 seismic regions, and the intensity key element is 6 grades and certain above earthquake magnitude;
A3, data statistics step, all seismic events number of times that taken place since 1900 according to each zone, and wherein each seismic events takes place preceding and the residing zone of recent seismic events of the time interval, generation back, add up and draw the probability data that each regional seismism is influenced by other regional earthquake phenomenon respectively, and the seismism of each seismic region initiation is positioned at the data of other each regional probability;
B, sequence determining stepB1, the first seismic region sequence determining step according to far and near order of time, are listed the first seismic region sequence of being made up of the 6 secondary earthquake phenomenons zone of living in of nearest generation;
B2, the second seismic region sequence determining step, the residing zone of one earthquake phenomenon according to nearest generation, utilize the steps A 3 resulting seismisms that cause by this zone to be positioned at the data of other each regional probability, list by preceding 20 second seismic region sequences that the zone is formed in other each zone according to the probability size;
B3, the 3rd seismic region sequence determining step, for each zone in the second seismic region sequence, the probability data that influenced by other regional earthquake phenomenon according to steps A 3 resulting each regional seismism, at each seismic region in the second seismic region sequence, list by preceding 20 each the 3rd seismic region sequences that the zone is formed in other zone according to the probability size respectively;
C, interpretation of result stepWith described each the 3rd seismic sequence of obtaining among the step B3 respectively with step B1 in the first seismic region sequence contrast that obtains, the pairing seismic region that is arranged in the second seismic region sequence of the 3rd seismic region sequence that same area quantity is many more, the probability of its following generation seismism is big more.
Chinese PRB Reexamination
Abstract
The present invention relates to a worldwide strong earthquake tendency early warning system. A method of the present invention comprises the following steps: selecting three elements from the history catalog of global earthquakes which are bigger than or equal to 6.0 magnitude in this century; dividing the whole world into 29 zones according to the epicenter distribution of global strong earthquakes, numbering the zones and representing zones with sequences; simultaneously supposing that every earthquake is relative with the other earthquakes which happen before or after the earthquake; orderly recording earthquakes before and after earthquakes of each zone in this century; calculating the probability; numbering the earthquake zones in which the earthquake possibly occur after the earthquakes occur or before the earthquakes occur and using the sequence to represent the earthquake occurrence probability. The more sequences and the numbers the earthquake zones exists in the diagram, the highest earthquake occurrence probability in the future the corresponding zone has.
2 Claims

1. , a kind of Worldwide strong seism tendency Forecasting Methodology is characterized in that, this method possesses following steps:

A, initialization step, it comprises A1, area dividing step mark off 29 seismic regions in order to earthquake prediction with global yardstick by global macroseism earthquake centre distribution situation; A2, data acquisition step, collection is in order to carry out the historical earthquake phenomenon data of earthquake prediction, the element of time that the historical earthquake phenomenon data of being gathered will possess has been certain time since 1900, the space key element is certain zone in 29 seismic regions, and the intensity key element is 6 grades and certain above earthquake magnitude; A3, data statistics step, all seismic events number of times that taken place since 1900 according to each zone, and wherein each seismic events takes place preceding and the residing zone of recent seismic events of the time interval, generation back, add up and draw the probability data that each regional seismism is influenced by other regional earthquake phenomenon respectively, and the seismism of each seismic region initiation is positioned at the data of other each regional probability; B, sequence determining step B1, the first seismic region sequence determining step according to far and near order of time, are listed the first seismic region sequence of being made up of the 6 secondary earthquake phenomenons zone of living in of nearest generation; B2, the second seismic region sequence determining step, the residing zone of one earthquake phenomenon according to nearest generation, utilize the steps A 3 resulting seismisms that cause by this zone to be positioned at the data of other each regional probability, list by preceding 20 second seismic region sequences that the zone is formed in other each zone according to the probability size; B3, the 3rd seismic region sequence determining step, for each zone in the second seismic region sequence, the probability data that influenced by other regional earthquake phenomenon according to steps A 3 resulting each regional seismism, at each seismic region in the second seismic region sequence, list by preceding 20 each the 3rd seismic region sequences that the zone is formed in other zone according to the probability size respectively; C, interpretation of result step With described each the 3rd seismic sequence of obtaining among the step B3 respectively with step B1 in the first seismic region sequence contrast that obtains, the pairing seismic region that is arranged in the second seismic region sequence of the 3rd seismic region sequence that same area quantity is many more, the probability of its following generation seismism is big more.


2. Worldwide strong seism tendency Forecasting Methodology as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, wherein introduces to contain the month in territory, earthquake region and the parameter of probability of earthquake occurrence doughtily.
Specification(s)