Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system
Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system
 CN 1,304,049 A
 Filed: 12/16/1999
 Published: 07/18/2001
 Est. Priority Date: 12/16/1999
 Status: Abandoned Application
First Claim
1. Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system is characterized in that the concrete steps of described method are as follows:
 more than or equal to 6.0 grades of seismic history catalogues, chosen wherein three earthquake parameter, i.e. origin time, epicentral location and earthquake magnitude by the whole world since 1900;
According to the 2150B.C.1991A.D. whole world of people such as U.S. P.K.Dunbar establishment shake doughtily provide in the catalogue by 25 seismic regioies dividing of earthquake centre distribution situation doughtily, the whole world, and it is revised 29 zones, and to each zone number;
If A represents seismic region, these 29 seismic regioies can be expressed as a sequence;
A(i),i=1,2…
…
29Suppose that simultaneously each earthquake is related with other seismic facies that take place afterwards before with its generation;
By regional sequence number, write down the front and back seismic events of each earthquake that each zone taken place since 1900 successively;
add up the probability that each zone takes place before earthquake and seismic events takes place afterwards;
Earthquake predictionIf 6 secondary earthquakes of global range generation recently are followed successively by;
A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, A1, wherein A1 is that the earthquake The corresponding area numbering A6 that just takes place takes place at first;
Zone and probability of earthquake occurrence that earthquake may take place after the A1 are expressed as a sequence;
A1 (i, jh), jh=1,2,3 ... 20, i is known definite valueAfter A1 might send out and confirm the zone that following earthquake takes place in the regional sequence of shake, be necessary to find out A1 (i, jh) zone number and probability of earthquake occurrence that earthquake takes place before the shake sent out in each zone in the sequence, it can be expressed as;
A1[A1 (i, jh), jq], i is known definite value;
Jh=jq=1,2,3 ... 20The first few items of each sequence in the following formula is compared with A1 to A6 sequence respectively, if wherein the situation that the zone number of certain sequence is identical with the zone number of Al to A6 sequence is many more, this regional sequence A1[A1 (i, jh), jq] The corresponding area A1 (i, jh) be the highest zone of following earthquake probability of earthquake occurrence, what can several zones that probability of earthquake occurrence is the highest be defined as following earthquake this moment sends out the territory, earthquake region.
Chinese PRB Reexamination
Abstract
The present invention relates to a globalscale strong earthquake tendency earlywarning system and its method. Said invented method includes the following steps: according to the historical record of global stong earthquakes whose magnitudes are greater than or equal to 6 on the Richter scale selecting three factors of earthquake; dividing the whole world into 29 zones according to the epicenter distribution of global strong earthquakes, numbering and representing with sequence; at the same time assuming that every earthquake has the relationship with foreshock and aftershock, recording these earthquakes to calculate their probability, numbering earthquake zone in which the earthquake can be tanken place and using sequence to present earthquake occurence probability. The more identical numbers is the same earthquake zone, the higher the earthquake occurence probability.

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No References
3 Claims

1. Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system is characterized in that the concrete steps of described method are as follows:
 more than or equal to 6.0 grades of seismic history catalogues, chosen wherein three earthquake parameter, i.e. origin time, epicentral location and earthquake magnitude by the whole world since 1900;
According to the 2150B.C.1991A.D. whole world of people such as U.S. P.K.Dunbar establishment shake doughtily provide in the catalogue by 25 seismic regioies dividing of earthquake centre distribution situation doughtily, the whole world, and it is revised 29 zones, and to each zone number; If A represents seismic region, these 29 seismic regioies can be expressed as a sequence; A(i),i=1,2…
…
29Suppose that simultaneously each earthquake is related with other seismic facies that take place afterwards before with its generation;
By regional sequence number, write down the front and back seismic events of each earthquake that each zone taken place since 1900 successively;
add up the probability that each zone takes place before earthquake and seismic events takes place afterwards;Earthquake prediction If 6 secondary earthquakes of global range generation recently are followed successively by;
A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, A1, wherein A1 is that the earthquake The corresponding area numbering A6 that just takes place takes place at first;
Zone and probability of earthquake occurrence that earthquake may take place after the A1 are expressed as a sequence;A1 (i, jh), jh=1,2,3 ... 20, i is known definite value After A1 might send out and confirm the zone that following earthquake takes place in the regional sequence of shake, be necessary to find out A1 (i, jh) zone number and probability of earthquake occurrence that earthquake takes place before the shake sent out in each zone in the sequence, it can be expressed as; A1[A1 (i, jh), jq], i is known definite value;
Jh=jq=1,2,3 ... 20The first few items of each sequence in the following formula is compared with A1 to A6 sequence respectively, if wherein the situation that the zone number of certain sequence is identical with the zone number of Al to A6 sequence is many more, this regional sequence A1[A1 (i, jh), jq] The corresponding area A1 (i, jh) be the highest zone of following earthquake probability of earthquake occurrence, what can several zones that probability of earthquake occurrence is the highest be defined as following earthquake this moment sends out the territory, earthquake region.
 more than or equal to 6.0 grades of seismic history catalogues, chosen wherein three earthquake parameter, i.e. origin time, epicentral location and earthquake magnitude by the whole world since 1900;

2. Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that introducing the parameter in the month in territory, earthquake region (season) and probability of earthquake occurrence doughtily for improving predictablity rate by statistics.

3. Worldwide strong seism tendency early warning system as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that the scope that three elements are shaken in this early warning system prediction doughtily is:
 earthquake magnitude;
more than or equal to 6 grades of earthquakes;
Origin time;
130 is within day;
The earthquake centre;
certain is the territory, earthquake region doughtily.
 earthquake magnitude;
Specification(s)