Method for assessment of uncertainty and risk
First Claim
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1. A method for assessing uncertainty comprising:
- creating a catalog for uncertainty areas;
capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;
establishing dependencies between uncertainties;
associating risks to uncertainties;
associating action plans and tasks to risks;
creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and
tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.
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Abstract
A method is disclosed for assessing uncertainty comprising: creating a catalog for uncertainty areas; capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; establishing dependencies between uncertainties; associating risks to uncertainties; associating action plans and tasks to risks; creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.
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Citations
50 Claims
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1. A method for assessing uncertainty comprising:
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creating a catalog for uncertainty areas; capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; establishing dependencies between uncertainties; associating risks to uncertainties; associating action plans and tasks to risks; creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3)
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4. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for assessing uncertainty, said method steps comprising:
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creating a catalog for uncertainty areas; capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; establishing dependencies between uncertainties; associating risks to uncertainties; associating action plans and tasks to risks; creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time. - View Dependent Claims (5, 6)
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7. A system for assessing uncertainty comprising a processor, a data storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and a computer-readable media for storing data, the system comprising:
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means for creating a catalog for uncertainty areas and for storing the catalog in the computer-readable media; means for capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; means for establishing dependencies between uncertainties; means for associating risks to uncertainties; means for associating action plans and tasks to risks; means for creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and means for tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time. - View Dependent Claims (8)
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9. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:
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determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12)
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13. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said method steps comprising:
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determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16)
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17. A computer program stored in a processor readable medium and adapted to be executed by the processor, said program, when executed by said processor, conducting a process for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said process comprising:
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determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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21. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:
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(a) determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of a reservoir, the set of uncertainties including both qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, and determining how the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of the reservoir evolve over time, the determining step (a) including, (a1) creating a catalog for uncertainty areas, (a2) capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog, (a3) establishing dependencies between uncertainties, (a4) associating risks to uncertainties, (a5) associating action plans and tasks to risks, (a6) creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and (a7) tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time. - View Dependent Claims (22, 23, 24, 25, 26)
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27. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the method steps comprising:
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(a) determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of a reservoir, the set of uncertainties including both qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, and determining how the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of the reservoir evolve over time, the determining step (a) including, (a1) creating a catalog for uncertainty areas, (a2) capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog, (a3) establishing dependencies between uncertainties, (a4) associating risks to uncertainties, (a5) associating action plans and tasks to risks, (a6) creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and (a7) tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time. - View Dependent Claims (28, 29, 30, 31, 32)
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33. A method, practiced by a computer system, for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the computer system including a processor, a memory for storing a software, and a recorder or display device adapted for generating an output display, the processor receiving information contained within an uncertainty catalog wherein said information includes uncertainty and risk information pertaining to the development of the reservoir, the uncertainty and risk information being provided to said processor, comprising:
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(a) executing, by the processor, the software stored in the memory in response to the uncertainty and risk information being received from the uncertainty catalog, (b) in response to the executing step, generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir, (c) in response to the generating step (b), generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap, the realization tree including levels of uncertainty, the treemap being adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project, and (c) recording or displaying, by the recorder or display device, the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, the realization tree, and the treemap on one or more of the output displays. - View Dependent Claims (34, 35)
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36. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps, which are practiced by a computer system, for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the computer system including a processor, a memory for storing a software, and a recorder or display device adapted for generating an output display, the processor receiving information contained within an uncertainty catalog wherein said information includes uncertainty and risk information pertaining to the development of the reservoir, the uncertainty and risk information being provided to said processor, the method steps comprising:
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(a) executing, by the processor, the software stored in the memory in response to the uncertainty and risk information being received from the uncertainty catalog, (b) in response to the executing step, generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir, (c) in response to the generating step (b), generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap, the realization tree including levels of uncertainty, the treemap being adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project, and (c) recording or displaying, by the recorder or display device, the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, the realization tree, and the treemap on one or more of the output displays. - View Dependent Claims (37, 38)
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39. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:
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determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty. - View Dependent Claims (40, 41)
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42. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said method steps comprising:
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determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty. - View Dependent Claims (43, 44)
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45. A computer program stored in a processor readable medium and adapted to be executed by the processor, the computer program, when executed by the processor, conducting a process of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the process comprising:
- determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;
continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty. - View Dependent Claims (46, 47)
- determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;
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48. A system of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:
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first apparatus adapted for determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; second apparatus adapted for continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and third apparatus, responsive to the continuously changing associated with the second apparatus, adapted for generating a visualization of uncertainty. - View Dependent Claims (49, 50)
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Specification