Method for assessment of uncertainty and risk

• US 7,467,045 B2
• Filed: 01/08/2007
• Issued: 12/16/2008
• Est. Priority Date: 01/20/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Prader Research &AMP Development Company Limited, Logined B.V. (Schlumberger NV), Schlumberger Canada Limited (Schlumberger NV), Schlumberger Technology Corporation (Schlumberger NV), Services Petroliers Schlumberger (Schlumberger NV)
• Original Assignee: Schlumberger Technology Corporation (Schlumberger NV)
• Inventors: Brady, James P., Lu, Albert, Palkowsky, Douglas A., Tabanou, Eric, Neisch, Daniel A.
• Primary Examiner(s): Raymond; Edward
• Application Number:
  US11/650,722
• Publication Number:
  US 20070179742A1
• Time in Patent Office: 708 Days
• Field of Search: 702/13, 702/5, 702/16, 703/10
• US Class Current: 702/13
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

A method is disclosed for assessing uncertainty comprising: creating a catalog for uncertainty areas; capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; establishing dependencies between uncertainties; associating risks to uncertainties; associating action plans and tasks to risks; creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

Claims

1. A method for assessing uncertainty comprising:

creating a catalog for uncertainty areas;

capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

associating risks to uncertainties;

associating action plans and tasks to risks;

creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

2. The method as in claim 1 wherein the catalog is updatable.

3. The method as in claim 2 wherein the uncertainty assessed arises in the context of operation in the oil and gas industry.

4. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for assessing uncertainty, said method steps comprising:

creating a catalog for uncertainty areas;

capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

associating risks to uncertainties;

associating action plans and tasks to risks;

creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

5. The program storage device as in claim 4 wherein the catalog is updatable.

6. The program storage device as in claim 5 wherein the uncertainty assessed arises in the context of operation in the oil and gas industry.

7. A system for assessing uncertainty comprising a processor, a data storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and a computer-readable media for storing data, the system comprising:

means for creating a catalog for uncertainty areas and for storing the catalog in the computer-readable media;

means for capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

means for establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

means for associating risks to uncertainties;

means for associating action plans and tasks to risks;

means for creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

means for tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

8. The system as in claim 7 further comprising a display capable of displaying a realization tree.

9. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

13. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said method steps comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

14. The program storage device of claim 13, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

15. The program storage device of claim 14, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

16. The program storage device of claim 15, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

17. A computer program stored in a processor readable medium and adapted to be executed by the processor, said program, when executed by said processor, conducting a process for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said process comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

18. The computer program of claim 17, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

19. The computer program of claim 18, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

20. The computer program of claim 19, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

21. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:

(a) determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of a reservoir, the set of uncertainties including both qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, and determining how the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of the reservoir evolve over time, the determining step (a) including,

(a1) creating a catalog for uncertainty areas,

(a2) capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog,

(a3) establishing dependencies between uncertainties,

(a4) associating risks to uncertainties,

(a5) associating action plans and tasks to risks,

(a6) creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and

(a7) tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

22. The method of claim 21, wherein the creating step (a1) comprises:

creating an uncertainty catalog;

creating an uncertainty category; and

creating an uncertainty template.

23. The method of claim 22, wherein the establishing step (a3) comprises:

identifying dependent uncertainties, and capturing a relationship between a dependent uncertainty and a parent uncertainty.

24. The method of claim 23, wherein the associating step (a5) for associating action plans and tasks to risks comprises:

creating an action plan and associating the action plan with a risk, creating tasks, and associating the tasks with the action plan.

25. The method of claim 24, wherein the creating step (a6) for creating a realization tree comprises:

creating a realization tree, editing a state of realization tree branches, and capturing decisions from the edited realization tree.

26. The method of claim 25, wherein the tracking changes step (a7) comprises:

generating reports, generating a treemap view versus time adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project, saving a snapshot of project data, and comparing versions of said project data.

27. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the method steps comprising:

(a) determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of a reservoir, the set of uncertainties including both qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, and determining how the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of the reservoir evolve over time, the determining step (a) including,

(a1) creating a catalog for uncertainty areas,

(a2) capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog,

(a3) establishing dependencies between uncertainties,

(a4) associating risks to uncertainties,

(a5) associating action plans and tasks to risks,

(a6) creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and

(a7) tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

28. The program storage device of claim 27, wherein the creating step (a1) comprises:

creating an uncertainty catalog;

creating an uncertainty category; and

creating an uncertainty template.

29. The program storage device of claim 28, wherein the establishing step (a3) comprises:

identifying dependent uncertainties, and capturing a relationship between a dependent uncertainty and a parent uncertainty.

30. The program storage device of claim 29, wherein the associating step (a5) for associating action plans and tasks to risks comprises:

creating an action plan and associating the action plan with a risk, creating tasks, and associating the tasks with the action plan.

31. The program storage device of claim 30, wherein the creating step (a6) for creating a realization tree comprises:

creating a realization tree, editing a state of realization tree branches, and capturing decisions from the edited realization tree.

32. The program storage device of claim 31, wherein the tracking changes step (a7) comprises:

generating reports, generating a treemap view versus time adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk has evolved over time during the course of a project, saving a snapshot of project data, and comparing versions of said project data.

33. A method, practiced by a computer system, for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the computer system including a processor, a memory for storing a software, and a recorder or display device adapted for generating an output display, the processor receiving information contained within an uncertainty catalog wherein said information includes uncertainty and risk information pertaining to the development of the reservoir, the uncertainty and risk information being provided to said processor, comprising:

(a) executing, by the processor, the software stored in the memory in response to the uncertainty and risk information being received from the uncertainty catalog,

(b) in response to the executing step, generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir,

(c) in response to the generating step (b), generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap, the realization tree including levels of uncertainty, the treemap being adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project, and

(c) recording or displaying, by the recorder or display device, the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, the realization tree, and the treemap on one or more of the output displays.

34. The method of claim 33, wherein the step of generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir comprises:

receiving the uncertainty catalog which defines uncertainty areas pertaining to the development of a reservoir, and capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog.

35. The method of claim 34, wherein the step of generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap comprises:

establishing dependencies between uncertainties,

associating risks to uncertainties,

associating action plans and tasks to risks,

creating the realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time, the tracking step including generating the treemap.

36. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps, which are practiced by a computer system, for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the computer system including a processor, a memory for storing a software, and a recorder or display device adapted for generating an output display, the processor receiving information contained within an uncertainty catalog wherein said information includes uncertainty and risk information pertaining to the development of the reservoir, the uncertainty and risk information being provided to said processor, the method steps comprising:

(a) executing, by the processor, the software stored in the memory in response to the uncertainty and risk information being received from the uncertainty catalog,

(b) in response to the executing step, generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir,

(c) in response to the generating step (b), generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap, the realization tree including levels of uncertainty, the treemap being adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project, and

(c) recording or displaying, by the recorder or display device, the qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty, the realization tree, and the treemap on one or more of the output displays.

37. The program storage device of claim 36, wherein the step of generating, by the processor, a set of qualitative and a set of quantitative assessments of uncertainty pertaining to the development of a reservoir comprises:

receiving the uncertainty catalog which defines uncertainty areas pertaining to the development of a reservoir, and

capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data that is defined by the catalog.

38. The program storage device of claim 37, wherein the step of generating, by the processor, a realization tree and a treemap comprises:

establishing dependencies between uncertainties,

associating risks to uncertainties,

associating action plans and tasks to risks,

creating the realization tree from uncertainty ranges, and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time, the tracking step including generating the treemap.

39. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty.

40. The method of claim 39, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a realization tree which includes levels of uncertainty.

41. The method of claim 39, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a treemap adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project.

42. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a set of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said method steps comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty.

43. The program storage device of claim 42, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a realization tree which includes levels of uncertainty.

44. The program storage device of claim 42, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a treemap adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project.

45. A computer program stored in a processor readable medium and adapted to be executed by the processor, the computer program, when executed by the processor, conducting a process of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, the process comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

in response to the continuously changing step, generating a visualization of uncertainty.

46. The computer program of claim 45, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a realization tree which includes levels of uncertainty.

47. The computer program of claim 45, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a treemap adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project.

48. A system of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:

first apparatus adapted for determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir;

second apparatus adapted for continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

third apparatus, responsive to the continuously changing associated with the second apparatus, adapted for generating a visualization of uncertainty.

49. The system of claim 48, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a realization tree which includes levels of uncertainty.

50. The system of claim 48, wherein the visualization of uncertainty includes a treemap adapted for visualizing changes to uncertainties over time in order to determine how an uncertainty and a risk have evolved over time during the course of a project.