Risk Modeling System
First Claim
1. A computerized modeling system that operates on an initial data collection which includes risk factors and outcomes, comprising:
- data storage for a plurality of risk factors and outcomes that are associated with the risk factors;
a library of algorithms operable to test variable interactions between the risk factors and results to confirm statistical validity of the associations;
optimization logic that forms an ensemble as a combination of the algorithms operating on model components selected from the group consisting of data, fitness functions, relationships, predefined rules and combinations thereof, and relates the respective parts of the ensemble to establish data flow as needed between the respective parts of the ensemble;
the optimization logic iterating to modify the ensemble by selecting alternative parts to form a plurality of such ensembles, test the ensembles for fitness, and select the best ensemble for use as a production model; and
means for interacting with the production risk model to perform business operations using the production risk model as a predictive tool.
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Abstract
A system including a general-purpose decision support and decision making predictive analytics engine that is able to find patterns in many types of digitally represented data. Given data that represents a random collection of points, the system finds these internal patterns employing an inductive principle called structural risk minimization that separates the points with the maximum margin. Internal patterns in the initial data are inductively determined by employing structural risk minimization to separate the points with a maximum margin. A model based on the internal patterns in the data is then generated, and the model is used with new data to generate predictions by evaluating the new data for similarities to the model. The model is implemented to facilitate decision making processes. Special features are provided to validate incoming data, preprocess the data, and monitor the data to improve the integrity of modeling results. Results are delivered to users by a reporting capability that facilitates the decision making processes that are inherent to a business enterprise.
56 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A computerized modeling system that operates on an initial data collection which includes risk factors and outcomes, comprising:
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data storage for a plurality of risk factors and outcomes that are associated with the risk factors; a library of algorithms operable to test variable interactions between the risk factors and results to confirm statistical validity of the associations; optimization logic that forms an ensemble as a combination of the algorithms operating on model components selected from the group consisting of data, fitness functions, relationships, predefined rules and combinations thereof, and relates the respective parts of the ensemble to establish data flow as needed between the respective parts of the ensemble; the optimization logic iterating to modify the ensemble by selecting alternative parts to form a plurality of such ensembles, test the ensembles for fitness, and select the best ensemble for use as a production model; and means for interacting with the production risk model to perform business operations using the production risk model as a predictive tool. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A method of modeling operates on an initial data collection which includes risk factors and outcomes, comprising:
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on a computer system storing data for a plurality of risk factors and outcomes that are associated with the risk factors; accessing a library of algorithms that operate to test associations between the risk factors and results to confirm statistical validity of the associations; creating an ensemble for optimization by receiving groups of risk factors, selecting predetermined design patterns for calculations at respective ensemble parts according to a set of predefined rules, and relating the respective parts of the ensemble to establish required data flow between the respective components; tuning the ensemble by iterations of the step of creating to form a plurality of new ensembles, testing the ensembles for fitness, and selecting the best ensemble for use in a risk model. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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Specification