Systems and Methods for Predicting Purchase Behavior Based on Consumer Transaction Data in a Geographic Location
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method for use in predicting purchases in a region, the method comprising:
- generating, by a computing device, a purchase propensity model based on historic transaction data;
determining, by the computing device, a recent sales value of the region based on a set of transactions that occurred in the region during a recent time interval;
determining, by the computing device, a set of consumer accounts that include transactions in the region during the recent time interval;
calculating, by the computing device, propensity scores associated with each of the consumer accounts, said propensity scores being based on the purchase propensity model;
combining, by the computing device, the propensity scores of each of the consumer accounts into an overall purchase propensity; and
determining, by the computing device, a predicted sales value for the region based on the recent sales value of the region and the overall purchase propensity.
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Abstract
Systems and methods are provided for use in predicting purchases in regions based on payment account transaction data from in and around the regions. One exemplary method includes generating a purchase propensity model based on historic transaction data and determining a recent sales value of the region based on a set of transactions that occurred in the region during a recent time interval. A set of consumer accounts that include transactions in the region during the recent time interval is determined. The computing device calculates consumer propensity scores for the consumer accounts based on the purchase propensity model. The propensity scores are combined into an overall purchase propensity for the region. The overall purchase propensity and recent sales value of the region are used to determine a predicted sales value of the region, whereby businesses in the region make business decisions confident that the predicted sales value is accurate.
21 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method for use in predicting purchases in a region, the method comprising:
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generating, by a computing device, a purchase propensity model based on historic transaction data; determining, by the computing device, a recent sales value of the region based on a set of transactions that occurred in the region during a recent time interval; determining, by the computing device, a set of consumer accounts that include transactions in the region during the recent time interval; calculating, by the computing device, propensity scores associated with each of the consumer accounts, said propensity scores being based on the purchase propensity model; combining, by the computing device, the propensity scores of each of the consumer accounts into an overall purchase propensity; and determining, by the computing device, a predicted sales value for the region based on the recent sales value of the region and the overall purchase propensity. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A non-transitory computer readable storage media including executable instructions for predicting purchase propensity within a region based on payment account transaction data, which when executed by at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to:
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access a purchase propensity model based on historic transaction data; determine a recent sales value of the region based on a set of transactions that occurred in the region during a recent time interval; determine a set of consumer accounts that include transactions in the region during the recent time interval; apply the purchase propensity model to each of the consumer accounts to form consumer purchase propensities for each of the consumer accounts; combine the consumer purchase propensities of each of the consumer accounts into an overall purchase propensity; and determine a forecasted sales value for the region based on the recent sales value of the region and the overall purchase propensity. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15)
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16. A system for use in predicting consumer purchasing behavior, the system comprising:
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a memory; and at least one processor in communication with the memory, the at least one processor configured to; access historical transaction data for multiple consumers for a time interval prior to a target time and for a target region; generate multiple purchase propensity models based on the historical transaction data and store the purchase propensity models in the memory, the purchase propensity models indicating likelihoods that the consumers will perform future transactions at particular merchants and/or at particular categories of merchants; access current transaction data for a transaction made by a target one of the consumers at a merchant within the target region and within an interval after the target time; and generate a propensity score for the target consumer based on the current transaction and at least one of the purchase propensity models, to thereby predict if the consumer will perform a future transaction at one of the particular merchants and/or at one of the particular categories of merchants, and store the propensity score in the memory. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18, 19, 20)
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Specification